MCFC Analytics blogposts Summary #9


In the past week, I found the following posts written using the #MCFCAnalytics data

  1. Some interesting stuff by @PedroAfonso85 building on some previous work  to breakdown the importance of ball possession and some discussion about the oft discussed yet hard to quantify, momentum.
  2. @MarkTaylor0 analyzed Blocked shots to find if blocking shots is a talent.
  3. @hpstats visualized points difference “with/without” a player in  the starting lineup. Also from the same blog is profiling players based on their shooting
  4. @SportsViz has a video with examples of 3D-visualization of passes using the data from Bolton vs. City game

Previous Summaries

Summary #8

Summary #7

Summary #6

Summary #5

Summary #4

Summary #3

Summary #2

Summary #1

MCFC Analytics blogposts – Summary #8


Here is the list of interesting posts I found in the past week

  1. An interesting post on home advantage and how it manifests itself into football stats by @FbPerspectives. The post also has a link to a detailed paper from 2009 on home advantage.
  2. Guardian Data blog has an interactive visualization of the Bolton – City game by @jburnmurdoch. The viz has a pitch map + a radial diagram that captures the pass direction and length.
  3. The man in the yellow shirt – an analysis of the refs by @PedroAfonso85
  4. An interactive visualization of the direction of a player’s passes by @alekseynp . Some of the outliers are very interesting.
  5. Momentum in Bolton – City game. by @SoccerStatistic . This is a different approach from the previous attempts on visualizing momentum using this data set.

I did not publish anything last week, although I did start writing. Hopefully I will publish something later this week.

Previous Summaries

Summary #7

Summary #6

Summary #5

Summary #4

Summary #3

Summary #2

Summary #1

If I missed any, please post them in the comments section or tweet them to me!

MCFC Analytics – blogposts summary #7


I did not see too many new posts in the past week. I didn’t publish any as I was busy with a different project.

  1. An interactive viz of Bolton – Manchester City  match data by @JBurnMurdoch on @GuardianData blog
  2. @HPStats attempts at defining metrics to be able to cluster players based on their style. Here is a good first step on Passing
  3. @shots_on_target made a summary of vital stats regarding goals, shooting accuracy, penalties etc..
  4. Scouting report on Tim Howard by @footballfactman
  5. An interactive visualization of the full dataset by @PhilyB1976 I posted this in one of the first few summary posts but there is additional information on the site. worth revisiting!
  6. An

Previous Summaries

Summary #6

Summary #5

Summary #4

Summary #3

Summary #2

Summary #1

If I missed any, please post them in the comments section or tweet them to me!

MCFC Analytics-Summary of blogposts #6


This week I saw a few more new bloggers getting into the act with the data.

First up, there was this article by @RWhittall of TheScore.com where Richard talked about “soccer data abuse by some bloggers using the MCFC data”. The gist of the article is that some of the bloggers are extrapolating too much with their conclusions based on one year’s worth of data from one league. The other point made in the article is that the output of the majority of  the work in soccer analytics isn’t groundbreaking and it is just adding a data context to what we already knew.

While I see where Richard is coming from, I don’t quite agree either with his assessment of the state of soccer analytics or the “data abuse” bit.

Unquestionably, we haven’t even scratched the surface of what we can do with data in soccer. The majority of the research work in the soccer analytics is carried out in the private domain.  That is because soccer data is not a commodity like it is in other sports like Baseball. The MCFC & Opta project could be a significant step in the direction of making soccer data more accessible to a wider audience,  if it can get enough passionate people interested in the project. However, like in any type of writing in the public domain, there is the good and the not so good. One of the things we discussed with Gavin Fleig, Head of Performance Analysis at Manchester City, Simon Farrant, Marketing coordinator at Opta et al is to build a community that fosters communication, collaboration and open feedback among the members and the readers. This should help everyone get better in some time.

Without further ado, here are links to some interesting work I found in this past week.

@MarkTaylor0 has a comprehensive piece on the state of soccer analytics and where it stands vis-à-vis other sports like NFL and Baseball. – The case for data analysis in football. This is a must read.

Analytics posts

  1. @PedroAfonso85 has a couple posts using the advanced data set
  2. @ChrisJLilley continues with his positional analysis series with Strikers and Central attacking midfielders
  3. @FootballFactman ‘s piece talks about what to look for in goalkeepers of the premier league
  4. @shots_on_target talks about the correlation between points in fantasy football and attacking stats
  5. In my weekly opposition analysis series I analyzed at Sunderland using last season’s data.

Visualization posts

  1. Earlier today I saw Voetstat, a neat blog by @Voetstat_craig which has some visualizations of pass completion + heatmaps. There are multiple posts. I haven’t had a chance to read all of them yet.
  2. @TomBerthon has this visualization of how goals were scored in the Bolton – City game from last season

If I missed any links, post them in the comments section and tweet them with the hashtag #MCFCAnalytics. I will retweet them.

Previous Summaries

Summary #5

Summary #4

Summary #3

Summary #2

Summary #1

Sunderland – Opposition Analysis


This is an “Opposition analysis” of Sunderland, City’s opponent on Saturday 2012/10/6 at the Etihad. I used the #MCFCAnalytics Lite data set to do this analysis.

Disclaimer: The analysis is primarily based on data from 2011-12 season with some data points from the first six games of 2012-13 season.

Sunderland – Offense

Goals 1.13 per game – 12th (excluding own goals)
Strong on direct free kicks 5 goals – 1st
% of Open play goals 76% – 4th
% of goals from inside the box 69.7% – 19th
% of goals from outside the box 30% – 2nd
Shots on Target 3.71 per game – 18th
Efficiency: Goals/shots On + off Target 7th
Efficiency Inside the box 16th
Efficiency Outside the box 3rd
Assists per Goals scored 18th
Poor from inside the box 19th in proportion of goals from inside & 16th in efficiency
Strong from outside the box 5th most goals and 3rd most efficient from outside
Final 3rd completions / comp % 16th / 14th
Poor in the final third and opposition box 18th in final 3rd touches & 19th in touches in opp. box
Poor in short passingcompletions / comp % 15th /15th
Good in long balls:  # of successful / success % 9th / 8th
Good in Open play crosses 7th in # of crosses & crossing accuracy
Very few Through balls 18th – less than 1 through ball per game
Other Sunderland just took 6 short corners all season, fewest in the league.

Sunderland – Key attacking players (2011-12)

Goals Bendtner – 8, Larsson & Sessegnon – 7 each,

McClean – 5

Shots On Target Bendtner – 23, Sessegnon – 21, Larsson – 17
Efficiency Larsson – 23%, McClean – 17% and Bendtner – 16. %
Assists Sessegnon – 9, Bendtner – 5
Final 3rd Completions Sessegnon – 401, Larsson – 281, Bardsley – 253
Final 3rd Completion% Sessegnon – 77.4%, Larsson – 66.27%, Bendtner – 60.6%
Touches in opposition box Sessegnon – 120, Bendtner – 98

Sunderland – Offensive summary

Major personnel changes for 2012-13

IN – Steven Fletcher; OUT – Nicklas Bendtner

Bendtner was highest goal-scorer for Sunderland last season with eight. He also had five assists. Steven Fletcher is doing more than enough to replace him. Fletcher has scored all the five goals of Sunderland so far. There have not been any major changes apart from this.

What the numbers say

A mixture of long balls, great long-range shooting, some great free kicks and accurate crossing were the mainstay of Sunderland’s offense last season. Their attack ran through Stephané Sessegnon, Sebastian Larsson and Nicklas Bendtner.

Sunderland was poor in the final third and even worse from inside the box (19th in touches inside the opposition box). They scored 30% of their goals (13) from outside the box. They do not have a lot of through balls (less than 1 per game, 18th in the EPL) or assists (18th in assists per goal scored). Sunderland was poor in short passing (15th in # of completions and completion %). These stats indicate that Sunderland were very direct in attack. The low # of assists per goal is likely due to Sunderland playing a counterattacking style football. (= a lesser emphasis on interplay between multiple players in the final third to create a chance). They used long balls to good effect to get close to the opponents goal and take shots from outside the box. Their shooting and shooting efficiency from inside the box is poor.

So far this season

Steven Fletcher has accounted for all the five goals Sunderland scored this season. They have a hard time keeping the possession of the ball (like last season). They are unbeaten this season with four draws and a win. Their inability to hold on to leads (or scoring an extra goal) has cost them dearly. They had a lead into the second half in four of the five games but have won only once. Their problems with keeping the ball imply that opponents find it easier to breakthrough, especially in the second half when Sunderland is most likely trying to protect a lead or the point.

Steven Fletcher – One man army, so far. Picture courtesy – dailyrecord.co.uk

Sunderland – Defence

Goals conceded 1.21/game – 5th fewest
Final 3rd passes completions allowed 100/game 6th most
Short passes allowed 343/game 2nd most
Shots on Target Conceded 8th fewest
Lots of headed clearances 7th most
Fouls conceded 10.8/game – 8th fewest
Tackling machines! 1stin tackles won76% tackle success rate – 5th highest

5th in last man tackles

Weak in aerial duels, strong in ground duels 19thin % of aerial duels won5th in % of ground duels won
Corners 7th most corners conceded but conceded just 1 goal from corners, fewest in the league
Make it easy for opponent GKs 3rd highest GK distribution success for opponent GKs
Opponents get a lot of clean sheets 3rd highest # of clean sheets for opponents

Sunderland – Defensive summary

Based on the numbers, Sunderland is a clean tackling defence who do not concede many shots on target. However, they allow opponents a lot of short passes & pass completions in the final third. This indicates that they are likely not pressing and defend deep. Opponent GK’s have great success (over 70%, 3rd in the league) distributing the ball against Sunderland, another indicator that they do not press much and defend off the player. Their relatively low foul count is probably indicative of this. They concede a high number of corners but have just conceded one goal off of corners last season. They are strong in ground duels and are one of the worst teams in aerial duels. They also employ a high number of head clearances.

City had a lot of success against Sunderland in the final third with 181 & 167 completions away and home respectively (average: 135). However, this advantage did not translate into shots on target for City. This could be a side effect of their clean tackling and high # of headed clearances.

Sunderland – Goalkeeping – Simon Mignolet

Goals conceded overall 1.13/game – 6th fewest
Goals from outside 0.31/game – 4th most in the league
Saves made 3.2/game – 7th most
GK distribution efficiency(Successful GK distribution/Total GK distribution) 17th of 18 GKs with 29 or more starts
Long passes completion 34% – 16th of 18
Short passes completion rate 77.4% – 17th of 18(53 attempts 2nd fewest)
Ratio of Long to short passes 90-10

Sunderland – Goalkeeping Summary

Mignolet is good with saves and does not allow many goals (which, is probably a reflection of the overall defensive scheme, not just the goalkeeper). However, he seems to have trouble distributing and passing the ball. The proportion of long passes of the total passes is highly skewed in favor of the long passes. These numbers indicate that Mignolet hoofs the ball as far as possible and most of the time his passes end in loss of possession.

The low number of short passes and pass completion rate of short passes could be indicative of an overall scheme and/or that Mignolet & the Sunderland central defenders are not very good at passing short from their goal.

This means pressing the ball high in the defensive third of Sunderland could be a very productive strategy for opponents. City forwards might enjoy a lot of success prolonging their possessions in the final third by keeping the pressure on the Sunderland GK and defence.

City vs. Sunderland Head – to – head 2011-12

  • Sunderland had great success against City last season. They took four points from the Champions
  • At the Etihad, City needed a big comeback from 1-3 down to salvage a point.
  • Sebastian Larsson x 2 and Nicklas Bendtner were the scorers for Sunderland. Mario Balotelli x 2 and Alexsandr Kolarov scored for City
  • At the Stadium of light, Sunderland upset City 1-0 with a late goal from Di Jong Won.
  • City had 181 (away) and 167 (home) completions in the final third, both higher than their average of 135/game. Shots were close to their game averages.

Final word

City is very likely to have a lot of success pressing Sunderland in their defensive third. They might not find it very difficult to pass short and have lengthy possession spells in the Sunderland final third. However, they need to stay patient as Sunderland defend very well as a team. Sessegnon, Fletcher and Larsson are the three players to watch out for at the other end of the pitch.

Fulham – Opposition Analysis #FFC vs. #MCFC


This is an “Opposition analysis” of Fulham, City’s opponent on Saturday 29 September at Craven Cottage. I used the #MCFCAnalytics Lite data set to do this analysis.

Goals 1.12 per game – 12th (excluding own goals)
% of Open play goals 74.4% – 6th
% of goals from inside the box 86% – 6th
% of goals from outside the box 14% – 15th
Shots on Target 5.13 pg – 7th
Efficiency: Goals/shots On + off Target 11% – 17th
Assists per Goals scored 0.74 – 7th
Strong from inside the box 6st in % of goals from inside the box
Weak from outside the box 15th in % of goals from outside the box
Final 3rd completions / comp % 9th / 8th
Short passescompletions / comp % 8th / 7th
Poor at winning corners and scoring from corners 14th– corners won – 4.92 corners/game18thgoals from corners – 416th Headed goals – 7
Inability to score first Scored the first goal 13 times. (3rd worst in the league).

Fulham – Key attacking players

Goals Clint Dempsey – 17
Pogrebnyak – 6
Zamora – 5
Shots On Target Clint Dempsey – 58, Dembélé – 22,Johnson – 16
Efficiency Pogrebynak – 46.2%Zamora – 21.7%Dempsey – 15.6%
Assists Dempsey – 6
Zamora &Murphy –5 each
Final 3rd Completions Dembélé – 472, Murphy – 461, Dempsey – 416, Duff – 244
Final 3rd Completion% Dembélé– 84.1%, Duff – 80%, Dempsey – 75.4% Ruiz – 71.2%
Touches in opposition box Dempsey – 150, Zamora – 73, Johnson – 64, Duff – 62
Other interesting aspects Duff crosses a lot with a very low % of success

Fulham – Offensive summary

Personnel changes

Fulham has a huge player turnover on the offensive side. The top three players in goals, assists, final third passing and shots in the last season are not with the team anymore.

Clint Dempsey and Moussa Dembélé played a huge part in Fulham’s comfortable 9th place finish. Dempsey scored 17 goals and provided six assists. That accounts for about 50% of all Fulham’s goals. Apart from the goals and assists, he completed 416 passes in the final third (third most in Fulham) and had a team, high 150 touches in the opposition’s 18-yard box.

Dembélé had a big impact in the midfield last season and often was the origin of the attacking moves that ended in a Dempsey shot. He was Fulham’s best passer in the final third with 472 completions at an 84.1% completion rate.

The departure of Danny Murphy along with Dempsey and Dembélé means Fulham has lost all three of its top three passers in the final third. They have added Dimitar Berbatov who could probably make up for the goals of Dempsey. Costa Rican international Bryan Ruiz is likely to feature a lot more in the construction of the attacks. They are off to a fast start so far with three wins in five games tied with Arsenal & City on 9 points. They have also picked up Giorgos Karagounis, who if healthy can be of great value to the team. Hugo Rodallega from Wigan is also a very good pick up. However, questions on who will fill the void left by Murphy and Dembélé remain unanswered.

What the numbers say

Fulham’s attack ran through Dembélé, Murphy and Dempsey. Short passing and shooting from inside the box is the salient feature of Fulham attack. They are poor in shooting efficiency (17th), converting corners (18th) and headed goals (16th). This points to a predominantly ground based attack through the middle. They do not cross a whole lot and Damien Duff who has attempted most open play crosses in Fulham has very poor accuracy. It is likely that opposing teams know that Duff has a propensity to cross the ball and come well prepared to defend them.

Fulham were also very poor at a scoring the first goal (18th) only better than the relegated Bolton & Wolves. This means they are likely a team that is passive in attack and let the opposition take the initiative.

So far this season

Berbatov, Duff, Ruiz have had fast starts to their season. Fulham have scored the most goals (12) and have the fifth best pass completion rate in the league so far this season. Better numbers than City in both categories. Apart from Manchester United away, they have not played any big teams yet. They are unbeaten at home and this could be a big test for both Fulham and City.

Berbatov – key man for the Cottagers. Photo courtesy : UK Eurosport

Fulham – Defence

Goals conceded 1.29/game – 8th lowest
Final 3rd passes completions allowed 101.1/game 5th highest
Opponents Final 3rd pass completion % 68.94% – 2nd highest
Successful open play crosses allowed 4.08/game – 4th highest
Shots on Target Conceded 3rd highest2nd highest – From outside the box
Tackles Win 77% of their tackles – 3rd most18st in last man tackles
Fouls committed 9.9/game – 4th fewest
Other aspects Allowed the opposition to score first in 22 games (5th most)

Fulham – Defensive summary

The numbers from last year indicate that Fulham tends to defend deep and allows opponents a lot completions and possession in their defensive third. They also concede a high number of shots conceded from outside the box. This is a sign of passive defending. They do not seem to close down quickly enough to avoid good shots from outside the box. When they tackle, they tend to tackle cleanly and win a high percentage of them. They also allow a high number of successful open play crosses. Since crossing is inherently has a low percentage of success, this is another sign that Fulham defenders do not close down quickly. They commit very few fouls and do not concede many corners. All in all a defence, which is not aggressive, “lets you play” and tackle clean cleanly.

Fulham allowed their opponents score the first goal 22 times (5th most) as opposed to scoring only 13 themselves (third lowest total). Another indicator of the recurring theme of passiveness in their play.

Fulham – Goalkeeping – Mark Schwarzer

Goals conceded overall 1.23/game – 10th fewest
Saves made 11th most
GK distribution efficiency(Successful GK distribution/Total GK distribution) 3nd best – 72%
Long passes completion 34% – 3rd lowest
Short passes completion rate 95.2% – 5th best
Ratio of Long to short passes 70-30

Fulham – Goalkeeping Summary

Mark Schwarzer has very high distribution efficiency. He is also very good at short passes. Schwarzer has a propensity to punch the ball than any other keeper in the Premier League (among keepers who started at least 20 games). He is also the second highest in the league in catches/game & sixth highest in saves per game.

These stats correlate to the high number of shots on target allowed by Fulham’s defence. Schwarzer’s good goalkeeping is one of the reasons why Fulham did not concede many more goals.

City vs. Fulham Head – to – head 2011-12

§ Fulham came back from 0-2 down to draw 2-2 at the craven cottage. Aguero scored twice for City. Zamora and Kompany’s own goal tied it for Fulham.

§ City easily won 3-0 at the Etihad. Aguero, Dzeko & Chris Baird – own goal were the scorers.

§ City had more final 3rd completions (139. Season average 135) away from home than at home.

§ Fulham had a better final third completion percentage away from home than at home.

Final word

Fulham have played well and have scored a league-high 12 goals so far despite so many new faces in their attack. City will have their hands full defending the likes of Berbatov, Ruiz and Duff. City has not had a clean sheet so far this season. Will there be a lot of goals in this one?

To win City needs to:

§ Control Ruiz and Duff’s influence would be key to win this game. Berbatov is probably more talented than Dempsey but Fulham’s midfield is not as strong as it was last season.

§ Take advantage of the passivity of the Fulham defence. They allow a lot of possession to their opponents in their defensive third and allow opponents to take many shots on target.

§ Be aggressive and take the lead. Fulham has let opponents score the first goal 22 times last season. City has a great record when they score first (25 W, 2 D & 1 L last season).

Visualizing momentum shifts in Bolton vs. Man City


This is an attempt to visualize the momentum shifts in Bolton vs. City with goals scored and substitutions using the #MCFC analytics advanced data tier – I.

I used possession as a proxy for momentum. The game is divided into 5 minute buckets. If a goal is scored in a bucket, the bucket will end at the minute of the goal scored.
E.g.: 0-4 is bucket #1. If a goal is scored in minute 7, then 5-6 is bucket #2. 7-11 is bucket #3 and so on.

Plots

Figure 1 – Overall cumulative possession difference vs. game time in minutes.

CumulativeAll

2. Figure 2 – Cumulative possession difference up until a goal is scored.
E.g.: Say 1-0 is scored in minute 27 and 2-0 is scored in minute 38. The cumulative possession difference is calculated from minute #1 through 27. After 1-0, cumulative possession difference is calculated from minute 28 onwards (the date of minute 1 through 27 is excluded).
This helps to see if there is any noticeable shift in the momentum of the game after a goal.

CumulativeMomentumShifts

Findings

  • Overall City has dominated possession. The cumulative possession delta was always negative (= in favor of City) in Figure 1.
  • When the cumulative possession difference was reset after each goal scored (Figure 2), we see that Bolton tried to take the initiative after City took the lead in Min 26. They really pushed hard after City scored the 0-2, pulling one back within 2 minutes of City’s 2nd goal.
  • Bolton continued to push for an equalizer until City scored the 1-3 right after the half-time.
  • Bolton enjoyed more possession as they searched for a goal and did a substitution at min 60 (an attacking midfielder for a holding midfielder) – it seems like the move paid off as they scored 2-3 in min 62.
  • Bolton continued to push for an equalizer. City subbed out Aguero for Tevez, both attacking players but Tevez is better at playing a deeper role and hold up the ball.
  • As the game progressed Bolton switched D.Pratley for Chris Eagles (probably a shift in attacking style) and City responded with a defensive move by subbing out Dzeko for Adam Johnson
  • Those two moves by City helped them restore control. Towards the end, City subbed out attacking midfielder David Silva for fullback Zabaleta, a defender to secure the result in the dying minutes.

This is a very quick and simple interpretation & visualization of the moment shifts. All feedback is welcome.

MCFC Analytics – summary of blog posts # 2


I got good response for the first summary post I did last week. Here is a summary of articles done using MCFC Analytics data in the past week.

@MarkTaylor0 did a great post called “How teams win”. Mark calculated a list of various correlations that lead to wins.

Mark also did another interesting post  on  Newcastle’s 2011/12 season and the role of luck in their success.

@JimmyCoverdale Did a post enumerating how “Will he score goals in the Premier League? Is a wrong question to ask “ of newcomers to the league.

Jimmy also has a great post discussing the “Effectiveness of Crossing and the correlation with chances created”

@Zahlenwerkstatt did a post ranking goalkeepers in the 2011-12 season based on minutes played, save % and goals conceded.
I have made a couple of follow-ups based on the feedback of Final 3rd Analysis  Follow up #1 & Follow up #2

I have a couple of new posts lined up for later this week.

@OptaPro & Gavin Fleig‘s update on the Advanced data & T & Cs

Simon and Gavin released the updated T & Cs this past week allaying apprehensions of some of the bloggers regarding some of the language in the original T & Cs.

They have also announced that the first installment of the advanced data set will be released this week! I am excited.

If you find an article that is using MCFC Analytics data and is not posted here, please let me know. I will add it in the next week’s summary.

Final 3rd analysis – more follow ups


Thanks a lot for all the feedback and discussion regarding the final third analysis. Here are a few follow-ups on the feedback.

Feedback: The correlation between goals scored and passes in the final third is driven by the top 5 goal scoring clubs. If they are removed from the data set, the correlation might be weak.
This was brought up by @WillTGM & @Chumolo

Follow-up:

  • The correlation is not nearly as strong if the top 5 (goals scored) are removed. However, 5 teams constitute 25% of the sample space. If we cherry pick the top 5, it is not surprising that the correlation becomes much weaker.
  • I did an experiment choosing 15 clubs randomly from the 20. In several such experiments, the correlation was strong and significant. R2 varied between 0.56 and 0.87. The regression was significant. (F-test)
  • On a similar note, if outliers like Liverpool and Newcastle are excluded, the correlation becomes much stronger.

Feedback: Significance of the regression

@rui_xu brought up a great point about the importance of the significance of the regression and how just R2  might not tell the whole story.

Follow-up:
I did the F-test for all the regressions with the following results

  • However, when I did the same analysis using data from all the 380 games of last season (760 samples), the correlation was weak (as observed for the 38 games of Man City) and the regression was significant for the larger sample space.

Please keep the feedback coming!

Follow-up analysis: Final third passing and Goals scored per game


This is a follow up to my post regarding the strong correlation between completed in the final third and goals scored.

Question

Is there a correlation between the final third completions & goals scored at the game level?

Analysis

I investigated to see if this correlation exists at the game level using the #MCFCAnalytics data set. I plotted the completions in the final third vs. goals scored for Manchester City in all their 38 games of English Premier League.
Blue = Away
; Orange = Home

Manchester City Goals vs. Pass completions in the final 3rd on a per game basis

Findings:

  • Linear regression had an R2 of 0.04  implying that there is no correlation between passes completed in the final third and goals scored at the game level.
    I did the plot for a few other teams and got similar results.
     
  • Arsenal – Away and Liverpool – Home. In both cases, Manchester City had very little success completing passes in the final 3rd. However, they lost 1-0 at the Emirates and won 3-0 at home vs. Liverpool.
    Against Liverpool, City had 6 shots on target and 2 off target.
    Against Arsenal, City had 0 shots on target and 3 off target.
  • QPR – Home and QPR – Away. City scored 3 goals each against QPR home and away. However, they had a season high 326 completed passes in the final 3rd at home vs. just 74 in the away fixture.
    Shots vs. QPR Away – 5 on target & 10 off target.
    Shots vs. QPR Home – 15 on target and 10 off target.

The City – QPR fixture was that crazy season finale. City fell behind and they threw everyone forward to go for the win and the Premier league title. QPR was a man down from 55th minute and they defended at the edge of their 18-yard box for most of 2nd half. This explains the unusually high number of completed passes in the final third.

The above examples underline the rarity of the “goal” event. In any given game, there could be factors like bad shooting, luck, the opponent’s goalkeeper having a great game etc., which could influence the # of goals scored. However, over a season those things seem to even out.

In the next step of analysis I will add a 2nd variable to the model and analyze.

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