All posts tagged #CityOpposition

Sunderland – Opposition Analysis

This is an “Opposition analysis” of Sunderland, City’s opponent on Saturday 2012/10/6 at the Etihad. I used the #MCFCAnalytics Lite data set to do this analysis.

Disclaimer: The analysis is primarily based on data from 2011-12 season with some data points from the first six games of 2012-13 season.

Sunderland – Offense

Goals	1.13 per game – 12^th (excluding own goals)
Strong on direct free kicks	5 goals – 1^st
% of Open play goals	76% – 4^th
% of goals from inside the box	69.7% – 19th
% of goals from outside the box	30% – 2nd
Shots on Target	3.71 per game – 18^th
Efficiency: Goals/shots On + off Target	7^th
Efficiency Inside the box	16^th
Efficiency Outside the box	3^rd
Assists per Goals scored	18^th
Poor from inside the box	19^th in proportion of goals from inside & 16^th in efficiency
Strong from outside the box	5^th most goals and 3^rd most efficient from outside
Final 3^rdcompletions / comp %	16^th / 14^th
Poor in the final third and opposition box	18^thin final 3^rd touches & 19^th in touches in opp. box
Poor in short passingcompletions / comp %	15^th /15^th
Good in long balls: # of successful / success %	9^th / 8^th
Good in Open play crosses	7^th in # of crosses & crossing accuracy
Very few Through balls	18^th – less than 1 through ball per game
Other	Sunderland just took 6 short corners all season, fewest in the league.

Sunderland – Key attacking players (2011-12)

Goals	Bendtner – 8, Larsson & Sessegnon – 7 each, McClean – 5
Shots On Target	Bendtner – 23, Sessegnon – 21, Larsson – 17
Efficiency	Larsson – 23%, McClean – 17% and Bendtner – 16. %
Assists	Sessegnon – 9, Bendtner – 5
Final 3^rd Completions	Sessegnon – 401, Larsson – 281, Bardsley – 253
Final 3^rd Completion%	Sessegnon – 77.4%, Larsson – 66.27%, Bendtner – 60.6%
Touches in opposition box	Sessegnon – 120, Bendtner – 98

Sunderland – Offensive summary

Major personnel changes for 2012-13

IN – Steven Fletcher; OUT – Nicklas Bendtner

Bendtner was highest goal-scorer for Sunderland last season with eight. He also had five assists. Steven Fletcher is doing more than enough to replace him. Fletcher has scored all the five goals of Sunderland so far. There have not been any major changes apart from this.

What the numbers say

A mixture of long balls, great long-range shooting, some great free kicks and accurate crossing were the mainstay of Sunderland’s offense last season. Their attack ran through Stephané Sessegnon, Sebastian Larsson and Nicklas Bendtner.

Sunderland was poor in the final third and even worse from inside the box (19^th in touches inside the opposition box). They scored 30% of their goals (13) from outside the box. They do not have a lot of through balls (less than 1 per game, 18^th in the EPL) or assists (18^th in assists per goal scored). Sunderland was poor in short passing (15^th in # of completions and completion %). These stats indicate that Sunderland were very direct in attack. The low # of assists per goal is likely due to Sunderland playing a counterattacking style football. (= a lesser emphasis on interplay between multiple players in the final third to create a chance). They used long balls to good effect to get close to the opponents goal and take shots from outside the box. Their shooting and shooting efficiency from inside the box is poor.

So far this season

Steven Fletcher has accounted for all the five goals Sunderland scored this season. They have a hard time keeping the possession of the ball (like last season). They are unbeaten this season with four draws and a win. Their inability to hold on to leads (or scoring an extra goal) has cost them dearly. They had a lead into the second half in four of the five games but have won only once. Their problems with keeping the ball imply that opponents find it easier to breakthrough, especially in the second half when Sunderland is most likely trying to protect a lead or the point.

Steven Fletcher – One man army, so far. Picture courtesy – dailyrecord.co.uk

Sunderland – Defence

Goals conceded	1.21/game – 5^th fewest
Final 3^rd passes completions allowed	100/game 6^th most
Short passes allowed	343/game 2^nd most
Shots on Target Conceded	8^th fewest
Lots of headed clearances	7^th most
Fouls conceded	10.8/game – 8^th fewest
Tackling machines!	1^stin tackles won76% tackle success rate – 5^th highest 5^th in last man tackles
Weak in aerial duels, strong in ground duels	19^thin % of aerial duels won5^th in % of ground duels won
Corners	7^th most corners conceded but conceded just 1 goal from corners, fewest in the league
Make it easy for opponent GKs	3^rd highest GK distribution success for opponent GKs
Opponents get a lot of clean sheets	3^rd highest # of clean sheets for opponents

Sunderland – Defensive summary

Based on the numbers, Sunderland is a clean tackling defence who do not concede many shots on target. However, they allow opponents a lot of short passes & pass completions in the final third. This indicates that they are likely not pressing and defend deep. Opponent GK’s have great success (over 70%, 3^rd in the league) distributing the ball against Sunderland, another indicator that they do not press much and defend off the player. Their relatively low foul count is probably indicative of this. They concede a high number of corners but have just conceded one goal off of corners last season. They are strong in ground duels and are one of the worst teams in aerial duels. They also employ a high number of head clearances.

City had a lot of success against Sunderland in the final third with 181 & 167 completions away and home respectively (average: 135). However, this advantage did not translate into shots on target for City. This could be a side effect of their clean tackling and high # of headed clearances.

Sunderland – Goalkeeping – Simon Mignolet

Goals conceded overall	1.13/game – 6^th fewest
Goals from outside	0.31/game – 4^th most in the league
Saves made	3.2/game – 7^th most
GK distribution efficiency(Successful GK distribution/Total GK distribution)	17^th of 18 GKs with 29 or more starts
Long passes completion	34% – 16^th of 18
Short passes completion rate	77.4% – 17^th of 18(53 attempts 2^nd fewest)
Ratio of Long to short passes	90-10

Sunderland – Goalkeeping Summary

Mignolet is good with saves and does not allow many goals (which, is probably a reflection of the overall defensive scheme, not just the goalkeeper). However, he seems to have trouble distributing and passing the ball. The proportion of long passes of the total passes is highly skewed in favor of the long passes. These numbers indicate that Mignolet hoofs the ball as far as possible and most of the time his passes end in loss of possession.

The low number of short passes and pass completion rate of short passes could be indicative of an overall scheme and/or that Mignolet & the Sunderland central defenders are not very good at passing short from their goal.

This means pressing the ball high in the defensive third of Sunderland could be a very productive strategy for opponents. City forwards might enjoy a lot of success prolonging their possessions in the final third by keeping the pressure on the Sunderland GK and defence.

City vs. Sunderland Head – to – head 2011-12

Sunderland had great success against City last season. They took four points from the Champions
At the Etihad, City needed a big comeback from 1-3 down to salvage a point.
Sebastian Larsson x 2 and Nicklas Bendtner were the scorers for Sunderland. Mario Balotelli x 2 and Alexsandr Kolarov scored for City
At the Stadium of light, Sunderland upset City 1-0 with a late goal from Di Jong Won.
City had 181 (away) and 167 (home) completions in the final third, both higher than their average of 135/game. Shots were close to their game averages.

Final word

City is very likely to have a lot of success pressing Sunderland in their defensive third. They might not find it very difficult to pass short and have lengthy possession spells in the Sunderland final third. However, they need to stay patient as Sunderland defend very well as a team. Sessegnon, Fletcher and Larsson are the three players to watch out for at the other end of the pitch.

Fulham – Opposition Analysis #FFC vs. #MCFC

This is an “Opposition analysis” of Fulham, City’s opponent on Saturday 29 September at Craven Cottage. I used the #MCFCAnalytics Lite data set to do this analysis.

Goals	1.12 per game – 12^th (excluding own goals)
% of Open play goals	74.4% – 6^th
% of goals from inside the box	86% – 6^th
% of goals from outside the box	14% – 15^th
Shots on Target	5.13 pg – 7^th
Efficiency: Goals/shots On + off Target	11% – 17^th
Assists per Goals scored	0.74 – 7^th
Strong from inside the box	6^st in % of goals from inside the box
Weak from outside the box	15^th in % of goals from outside the box
Final 3^rdcompletions / comp %	9^th / 8^th
Short passescompletions / comp %	8^th / 7^th
Poor at winning corners and scoring from corners	14^th– corners won – 4.92 corners/game18^thgoals from corners – 416^th Headed goals – 7
Inability to score first	Scored the first goal 13 times. (3rd worst in the league).

Fulham – Key attacking players

Goals	Clint Dempsey – 17 Pogrebnyak – 6 Zamora – 5
Shots On Target	Clint Dempsey – 58, Dembélé – 22,Johnson – 16
Efficiency	Pogrebynak – 46.2%Zamora – 21.7%Dempsey – 15.6%
Assists	Dempsey – 6 Zamora &Murphy –5 each
Final 3^rd Completions	Dembélé – 472, Murphy – 461, Dempsey – 416, Duff – 244
Final 3^rd Completion%	Dembélé– 84.1%, Duff – 80%, Dempsey – 75.4% Ruiz – 71.2%
Touches in opposition box	Dempsey – 150, Zamora – 73, Johnson – 64, Duff – 62
Other interesting aspects	Duff crosses a lot with a very low % of success

Fulham – Offensive summary

Personnel changes

Fulham has a huge player turnover on the offensive side. The top three players in goals, assists, final third passing and shots in the last season are not with the team anymore.

Clint Dempsey and Moussa Dembélé played a huge part in Fulham’s comfortable 9^th place finish. Dempsey scored 17 goals and provided six assists. That accounts for about 50% of all Fulham’s goals. Apart from the goals and assists, he completed 416 passes in the final third (third most in Fulham) and had a team, high 150 touches in the opposition’s 18-yard box.

Dembélé had a big impact in the midfield last season and often was the origin of the attacking moves that ended in a Dempsey shot. He was Fulham’s best passer in the final third with 472 completions at an 84.1% completion rate.

The departure of Danny Murphy along with Dempsey and Dembélé means Fulham has lost all three of its top three passers in the final third. They have added Dimitar Berbatov who could probably make up for the goals of Dempsey. Costa Rican international Bryan Ruiz is likely to feature a lot more in the construction of the attacks. They are off to a fast start so far with three wins in five games tied with Arsenal & City on 9 points. They have also picked up Giorgos Karagounis, who if healthy can be of great value to the team. Hugo Rodallega from Wigan is also a very good pick up. However, questions on who will fill the void left by Murphy and Dembélé remain unanswered.

What the numbers say

Fulham’s attack ran through Dembélé, Murphy and Dempsey. Short passing and shooting from inside the box is the salient feature of Fulham attack. They are poor in shooting efficiency (17^th), converting corners (18^th) and headed goals (16^th). This points to a predominantly ground based attack through the middle. They do not cross a whole lot and Damien Duff who has attempted most open play crosses in Fulham has very poor accuracy. It is likely that opposing teams know that Duff has a propensity to cross the ball and come well prepared to defend them.

Fulham were also very poor at a scoring the first goal (18^th) only better than the relegated Bolton & Wolves. This means they are likely a team that is passive in attack and let the opposition take the initiative.

So far this season

Berbatov, Duff, Ruiz have had fast starts to their season. Fulham have scored the most goals (12) and have the fifth best pass completion rate in the league so far this season. Better numbers than City in both categories. Apart from Manchester United away, they have not played any big teams yet. They are unbeaten at home and this could be a big test for both Fulham and City.

Berbatov – key man for the Cottagers. Photo courtesy : UK Eurosport

Fulham – Defence

Goals conceded	1.29/game – 8^th lowest
Final 3^rd passes completions allowed	101.1/game 5^th highest
Opponents Final 3^rd pass completion %	68.94% – 2^nd highest
Successful open play crosses allowed	4.08/game – 4^th highest
Shots on Target Conceded	3^rd highest2^nd highest – From outside the box
Tackles	Win 77% of their tackles – 3^rd most18^st in last man tackles
Fouls committed	9.9/game – 4^th fewest
Other aspects	Allowed the opposition to score first in 22 games (5^th most)

Fulham – Defensive summary

The numbers from last year indicate that Fulham tends to defend deep and allows opponents a lot completions and possession in their defensive third. They also concede a high number of shots conceded from outside the box. This is a sign of passive defending. They do not seem to close down quickly enough to avoid good shots from outside the box. When they tackle, they tend to tackle cleanly and win a high percentage of them. They also allow a high number of successful open play crosses. Since crossing is inherently has a low percentage of success, this is another sign that Fulham defenders do not close down quickly. They commit very few fouls and do not concede many corners. All in all a defence, which is not aggressive, “lets you play” and tackle clean cleanly.

Fulham allowed their opponents score the first goal 22 times (5^th most) as opposed to scoring only 13 themselves (third lowest total). Another indicator of the recurring theme of passiveness in their play.

Fulham – Goalkeeping – Mark Schwarzer

Goals conceded overall	1.23/game – 10^th fewest
Saves made	11^th most
GK distribution efficiency(Successful GK distribution/Total GK distribution)	3^nd best – 72%
Long passes completion	34% – 3^rd lowest
Short passes completion rate	95.2% – 5^th best
Ratio of Long to short passes	70-30

Fulham – Goalkeeping Summary

Mark Schwarzer has very high distribution efficiency. He is also very good at short passes. Schwarzer has a propensity to punch the ball than any other keeper in the Premier League (among keepers who started at least 20 games). He is also the second highest in the league in catches/game & sixth highest in saves per game.

These stats correlate to the high number of shots on target allowed by Fulham’s defence. Schwarzer’s good goalkeeping is one of the reasons why Fulham did not concede many more goals.

City vs. Fulham Head – to – head 2011-12

§ Fulham came back from 0-2 down to draw 2-2 at the craven cottage. Aguero scored twice for City. Zamora and Kompany’s own goal tied it for Fulham.

§ City easily won 3-0 at the Etihad. Aguero, Dzeko & Chris Baird – own goal were the scorers.

§ City had more final 3^rd completions (139. Season average 135) away from home than at home.

§ Fulham had a better final third completion percentage away from home than at home.

Final word

Fulham have played well and have scored a league-high 12 goals so far despite so many new faces in their attack. City will have their hands full defending the likes of Berbatov, Ruiz and Duff. City has not had a clean sheet so far this season. Will there be a lot of goals in this one?

To win City needs to:

§ Control Ruiz and Duff’s influence would be key to win this game. Berbatov is probably more talented than Dempsey but Fulham’s midfield is not as strong as it was last season.

§ Take advantage of the passivity of the Fulham defence. They allow a lot of possession to their opponents in their defensive third and allow opponents to take many shots on target.

§ Be aggressive and take the lead. Fulham has let opponents score the first goal 22 times last season. City has a great record when they score first (25 W, 2 D & 1 L last season).

1 Comment

by Ravi Ramineni on September 26, 2012 • Permalink

Posted in Barclays Premier League, English Premier League, Football Analytics, Fulham, Manchester City, MCFC Analytics, Opposition Analysis, Opta

Tagged #CityOpposition, #MCFCAnalytics, EPL, FFC, Fulham, Fulham vs. City, MCFC, Opposition Analysis, Opta, Soccer analytics

Posted by Ravi Ramineni on September 26, 2012

https://analysefootball.com/2012/09/26/fulham-opposition-analysis-ffc-vs-mcfc/

Stoke City vs. Manchester City–Opposition Analysis

This is an “Opposition analysis” of Stoke City, Manchester City’s opponent on Saturday 15st September at the Britannia Stadium. I used the #MCFCAnalytics Lite data set to do this analysis.

Stoke – Offense

Offensively bad Goals scored Shots on Target Shots off Target	20th 20th 14th
Strong in the airHeaded goalsHeaded shots (on + off target)	14 – 3rd in the League – 40% (14/35) of their goals are from headers 2nd
Poor Final 3rd passing Completions in final 3rd	19th
Lots of “throw ball” Attempts on goal from throws (on + off target	1st

Stoke – Key attacking players

Goals	Peter Crouch – 10 – 5 from headers Jonathan Walters – 7
Shots	55 – Jonathan Walters took the highest # of shots for Stoke followed by 49 – Peter Crouch Robert Huth leads the Headers with 13 (on + off target)
Assists	Mathew Etherington – 7 Jermaine Pennant – 6 Jonathan Walters – 5
Final third passing	Peter Crouch (286 – 46% completion rate) had the maximum completions in the final 3rd. Glenn Whelan (268 – 63%) and Jonathan Walters (253 – 54%) are the next best passers in the final 3rd.
Other interesting aspects	1st in Assists to Goals ratio

Stoke – Offensive summary

Stats from last season indicate that Stoke is very “direct” in its attack (my “Eureka” moment right there!). Headed goals constitute 40% of their total goals scored. They were last in goals scored and shots on target. Overall, a very poor offensive record.

Peter Crouch is Stoke’s top-scorer. Jonathan Walters is the most valuable offensive player who can score (7 goals) as well as provide (5 assists) and is one of their most active passers in the final third.

Peter Crouch has the most # of completions in the final third, but that is not saying much. His completion % is below par. It is very likely that Stoke’s offensive game plan is to lob long balls in the direction of Peter Crouch, whose subsequent pass(or header) is easily intercepted. Stoke ranked last in the # of corners won. This is partly explained by the fact they are 19th in final 3rd completions – Could it be because Stoke is not spending enough time in the final 3rd to force clearances or mistakes from opposing defenders?

Stoke have the league’s highest Assist-to-Goals ratio. Stoke are very poor shooting from outside the box. The two stats put together imply that they neither have someone who can make dangerous solo runs at the defence and create a goal scoring opportunity on their own nor possess a goal-scoring threat from outside the box. Pulis has addressed the latter by signing Charlie Adam, whose 40-yard boomers will at least add another dimension to their attack. Adam’s signing should also improve their passing in the final 3rd.

They signed free agent Michael Owen last week in an effort improve their goal scoring. It is likely that Tony Pulis is looking for someone who can pounce on the knockdowns by Peter Crouch in and around the 18-yard box and take high percentage shots on goal. Not a bad idea in theory but I am skeptical on the kind of impact Michael Owen is going to have in the Stoke system.
New signing US defender Geoff Cameron will provide cover for Rory Delap with his powerful throw.
All their new signings are geared towards upgrading personnel for their direct approach rather than try something different.

Stoke – Defence

Goals conceded	53 – tied for 7th
Penalties conceded	7 – tied for 4th
Shots conceded	2nd – From outside the box 13th – From inside the box
Corners conceded	5th
Aerial duels	2nd – Total duels 1st – Duels won & 1st – Duels winning %
Ground duels won %	20th
Tackles	20th – Tackles won 20th – Tackles winning %
Clearances	1st – headed clearances 1st – total clearances
Fouls committed	5th
Pitch size	100 x 64 (vs. Man City’s 105 x 68) – smallest in EPL

Stoke – Defensive summary

Stoke rely heavily on their strong and physical aerial game in the defense as well. Stoke create the 2nd highest # of aerial duel situations in the league and are the best in the league in winning % of aerial duels. This shows Stoke’s clear affinity to play the ball in the air to take advantage of the physical conditions of its players. On the flip side, Stoke are the worst in the league in winning ground duels & tackles.

Stoke have the highest # of clearances 1910 (459 more than Norwich who are second. League average 1128). They also have the highest # of headed clearances in 959 (159 more than QPR who are second. League average is 575). This indicates that Stoke defenders are probably slow and tend to react late and get into situations where they have to make a clearance. They conceded the 5th highest # of corners in the league.

Britannia stadium has the smallest pitch in all of Premier league. It is 4 meters narrower, 5 meters shorter and 10.36% smaller in area than that of Manchester City. This means less space to work with on the ground. The passing angles for players like David Silva, Tevez et al, will be restricted. It will make it easier for Stoke defenders to close down the attacking players of the opposition despite their inferior technique and slowness. It also makes the aerial game a bit easier as the likelihood of completing a pass through the air is probably easier than passing on the ground in a small and crowded field. (This could also be the reason why Stoke defenders are forced to make so many headed clearances as the opposing teams are forced to play the ball in the air to have a better chance of completing a pass in and around the 18-yard box).

City should field as many players as possible who can pass the ball in tight spaces to move the ball on the ground close to their 18-yard box to force hurried clearances, defensive mistakes and set pieces. Stoke give up the 2nd highest # of shots on target from outside the box. Yaya Toure must fancy his chances of scoring a goal in this game.

Stoke are reasonably good (13th lowest) at conceding shots from inside the box. This could be due to their physical defending style. If the ref is “letting them play” then Stoke defence could frustrate attackers of the opposition and force them to settle for shots from the outside.

Stoke – Goalkeeping (Asmir Begovic)

Goals conceded	31 – 1.41 goals per game 7th (for All GKs with 20 or more starts)
GK distribution efficiency (Successful GK distribution/Total GK distribution)	67% – 11th
Long passes completion	51% – 1st
Short passes completion rate	75% – 19th (only 24 short passes attempted)
Proportion of Long to short passes	95% – 1st (league average 76)

Stoke – Goalkeeping Summary

I have considered only Asmir Begovic’s numbers for this analysis, as he is the starter this season. He is the best in the league at completing long passes and one of the worst goalkeepers at completing short passes. 95% of all passes attempted by Begovic are long (1st in the league). He gave up 1.41 goals per game, 7th highest in the league. However, he only conceded 0.727 goals per game ( 8 goals in 11 games) with 4 clean-sheets at home. Overall Stoke gave up only 20 goals in 19 home games. This was one of the main reasons for their survival last season.

City vs. Stoke Head – to – head 2011-12

City drew 1-1 at the Britannia and won 3-0 at home
Can you guess who scored the away goal for City and from where? Yaya Toure, from outside the box. Peter Crouch scored for Stoke.
In the home game at the Etihad, Aguero – 2 and Adam Johnson – 1.

Final word

City will find the going tough but should win this game. The key for City is to stay patient with their passing game and not be drawn into the physical and aerial battle that Stoke is so comfortable. Stoke do not create many clear scoring chances. If the City defence can keep their errors to a minimum, Stoke will most likely not score.

Manchester City vs. QPR : Opposition analysis #CityOppostion #MCFCAnalytics

This is an “Opposition analysis” of QPR, City’s opponent on Saturday 1^st September at the Etihad Stadium. I used the #MCFCAnalytics Lite data set to do this analysis.

Picture courtesy : @srands_analyst on twitter

QPR – Offense

Goals scored	16^th
Headed goals	10 – 4^th in the League 24.4% of their goals are from headers
Poor shooting efficiency from outside the box	3^rd in # of shots taken from outside box but 15^th in shooting efficiency (goals scored/{shots on target + shots off target from outside the box}
Long pass efficiency	7^th
Final 3^rd passing	13^th in final third completions

QPR – Key attacking players

Goals	Jamie Mackie (8 goals at 26.7% shooting efficiency) and Djibril Cissé (6 goals at 31.6% shooting efficiency) were the most dangerous goal scoring threats.
Shots	56 – Adil Taraabt took the highest # of shots in QPR 50/56 shots are from outside the box Taraabt also had 32 of his shots blocked, 27 of them from outside the box
Assists	Wright-Philips, Traore, Taraabt and Barton were the top assist providers with 3 each.
Final Third passing	Joey Barton (435) had the maximum completions in the final 3^rd. They have a great replacement for him in Esteban Granero, who is much better than Barton technically but he might need a few games to find his gears in the Premier League Taraabt (322), Faurlin (288) and Wright-Philips (215) are the next 3 in this category. All with an passing completion rate of over 70%.
Other interesting aspects	Taraabt (90 – 42%), Wright-Philips (96 – 37.5%) and Mackie (91 – 27.5%) are the top dribblers of the team.

QPR – Offensive summary

QPR seem to be very direct in their attack. They tend to defend deep and hit on the counter. They scored 10 goals from headers. Adil Taraabt is a very dynamic player but his decision-making is questionable. He takes too many shots from outside the box, many of them either off-target or blocked. Their average of less than 1 goal per away game highlights their trouble scoring away from home.

Joey Barton was one of the key cogs of their attack last season. He will be replaced by the excellent Esteban Granero, a product of the Real Madrid youth system.

The key players for QPR on the attack are Mackie, Wright-Philips and Taraabt.
Granero will be a part of this list as he gets used to the Premier League

Esteban Granero is technically much better and has none of the disciplinary issues of Barton. Granero is very adept at running the game from the midfield and has great technique and touch. His best seasons were at Getafe (on loan from Real Madrid) when he played a key role in taking the the small club from the suburbs of Madrid to within inches of the semi-finals of the UEFA cup 2007-08. He moved back to Real Madrid in 2009 and have not had a lot of playing opportunities since then. He must be eager to have a go at QPR and I expect him to have similar impact at QPR as the other Spanish midfielders are having at their respective Premier league teams. However, I doubt he will have a big impact in the game at Etihad Stadium.

QPR – Defence

Goals conceded	3^rd highest in the league
Shots conceded	4^th
Corners conceded	2^nd
Clearances	2^nd – Also 2^nd highest headed clearances and highest proportion of headed clearances among total clearances
Ground duels wining %	2^nd
Aerial duels winning %	16^th
Tackles winning %	17^th
Red-cards	9 – 1^st in the league

QPR – Defensive summary

“A train-wreck waiting to happen” – Is how I would describe the QPR defense of last season in 5 words. They seem to defend deep and it is likely that their back four is slow. Opponents complete about 10% more passes in QPR’s defensive third on an average compared to their league average. The # of corners conceded and headed clearances tell me that the QPR defence is in a “hurried” mode when the opposition is in QPR’s defensive third. This means they are a fraction too slow to be in the right place at the right time. They are forced to make clearances with no time to think about placement. They are ranked 17^th in tackles won. Some of it is probably due to them being fraction late on the tackles.

QPR – Goalkeeping

Goal keeper metrics	Standing among the peers
Goals conceded overall	17^th in the league
GK distribution efficiency – Kenny (Successful GK distribution/Total GK distribution)	60% – 13^th out of 18 GKs with 29 or more starts
Short passes completion – Kenny	80% – 15^th out of 18 (league average 90%)
Long passes completion –	39% – 11^th out of 18 (league average 39%)
Proportion of Long to short passes – Kenny	90% – 3^rd out of 18 (league average 76%)

QPR – Goalkeeping summary

Patrick Kenny is not with QPR anymore. Robert Green was not any better in the first two games. They have signed the veteran Brazilian keeper Julio Caesar a few days ago. He is an upgrade over Green. However, I am not too sure if their GK distribution strategy would change much. I think that is the key problem – Too much emphasis on long balls and very poor completions rates even with the short passes.

City should enjoy a lot of success if they try to pressure and hurry the QPR keeper.

City vs. QPR Head – to – head 2011-12

City won 3-2 home and away.
City had averaged 200 completions per. game in the final 3^rd vs. QPR. City’s average across the league is 142.5 completions per game. That is an increase of about 40%!
This explains the high number of goals scored by City in their fixtures vs. QPR. (Based on the analysis that there is a strong correlation between completions in the final third and goals scored)
How did QPR score against City?

2 of the 4 goals were headers – a strength of QPR

All 4 goals from inside the box, 1 from a set-play and 3 from open play

One of the goals was a quick counterattack

Scorers : Cissé, Mackie, Boothroyd, Helguson

How did City score vs. QPR?

All 6 from inside the box

2 were headers

5 from open play and 1 from a corner

Scorers : Aguero, Dzeko x 2, Yaya Touré, Zabaleta, Silva

Final word

City should win this game. QPR defence had too many issues last season and based on first two games of the Premiership I am not convinced that they have addressed them. On the other hand, City has a potent offence despite the absence of Aguero. However, QPR did score twice at the Etihad in that crazy season finale. If City defence can keep a tab on Mackie, Wright-Philips and Taraabt, QPR’s chances of scoring would go down dramatically.