All posts tagged Manchester City

MCFC Analytics blogposts Summary #9

In the past week, I found the following posts written using the #MCFCAnalytics data

Some interesting stuff by @PedroAfonso85 building on some previous work to breakdown the importance of ball possession and some discussion about the oft discussed yet hard to quantify, momentum.
@MarkTaylor0 analyzed Blocked shots to find if blocking shots is a talent.
@hpstats visualized points difference “with/without” a player in the starting lineup. Also from the same blog is profiling players based on their shooting
@SportsViz has a video with examples of 3D-visualization of passes using the data from Bolton vs. City game

Previous Summaries

Summary #8

Summary #7

Summary #6

Summary #5

Summary #4

Summary #3

Summary #2

Summary #1

MCFC Analytics blogposts – Summary #8

Here is the list of interesting posts I found in the past week

An interesting post on home advantage and how it manifests itself into football stats by @FbPerspectives. The post also has a link to a detailed paper from 2009 on home advantage.
Guardian Data blog has an interactive visualization of the Bolton – City game by @jburnmurdoch. The viz has a pitch map + a radial diagram that captures the pass direction and length.
The man in the yellow shirt – an analysis of the refs by @PedroAfonso85
An interactive visualization of the direction of a player’s passes by @alekseynp . Some of the outliers are very interesting.
Momentum in Bolton – City game. by @SoccerStatistic . This is a different approach from the previous attempts on visualizing momentum using this data set.

I did not publish anything last week, although I did start writing. Hopefully I will publish something later this week.

Previous Summaries

Summary #7

Summary #6

Summary #5

Summary #4

Summary #3

Summary #2

Summary #1

If I missed any, please post them in the comments section or tweet them to me!

1 Comment

by Ravi Ramineni on October 23, 2012 • Permalink

Posted in Barclays Premier League, Bolton Wanderers, Data Visualization, English Premier League, Football Analytics, Manchester City, MCFC Analytics, Opta, Premier League, Soccer Analytics, Tableau

Tagged #MCFCAnalytics, Barclays Premier League, EPL, football analytics, Manchester City, MCFC Analytics, Opta, Soccer analytics, soccer data visualization

Posted by Ravi Ramineni on October 23, 2012

https://analysefootball.com/2012/10/23/mcfcanalytics-blogposts-summary-8/

Sunderland – Opposition Analysis

This is an “Opposition analysis” of Sunderland, City’s opponent on Saturday 2012/10/6 at the Etihad. I used the #MCFCAnalytics Lite data set to do this analysis.

Disclaimer: The analysis is primarily based on data from 2011-12 season with some data points from the first six games of 2012-13 season.

Sunderland – Offense

Goals	1.13 per game – 12^th (excluding own goals)
Strong on direct free kicks	5 goals – 1^st
% of Open play goals	76% – 4^th
% of goals from inside the box	69.7% – 19th
% of goals from outside the box	30% – 2nd
Shots on Target	3.71 per game – 18^th
Efficiency: Goals/shots On + off Target	7^th
Efficiency Inside the box	16^th
Efficiency Outside the box	3^rd
Assists per Goals scored	18^th
Poor from inside the box	19^th in proportion of goals from inside & 16^th in efficiency
Strong from outside the box	5^th most goals and 3^rd most efficient from outside
Final 3^rdcompletions / comp %	16^th / 14^th
Poor in the final third and opposition box	18^thin final 3^rd touches & 19^th in touches in opp. box
Poor in short passingcompletions / comp %	15^th /15^th
Good in long balls: # of successful / success %	9^th / 8^th
Good in Open play crosses	7^th in # of crosses & crossing accuracy
Very few Through balls	18^th – less than 1 through ball per game
Other	Sunderland just took 6 short corners all season, fewest in the league.

Sunderland – Key attacking players (2011-12)

Goals	Bendtner – 8, Larsson & Sessegnon – 7 each, McClean – 5
Shots On Target	Bendtner – 23, Sessegnon – 21, Larsson – 17
Efficiency	Larsson – 23%, McClean – 17% and Bendtner – 16. %
Assists	Sessegnon – 9, Bendtner – 5
Final 3^rd Completions	Sessegnon – 401, Larsson – 281, Bardsley – 253
Final 3^rd Completion%	Sessegnon – 77.4%, Larsson – 66.27%, Bendtner – 60.6%
Touches in opposition box	Sessegnon – 120, Bendtner – 98

Sunderland – Offensive summary

Major personnel changes for 2012-13

IN – Steven Fletcher; OUT – Nicklas Bendtner

Bendtner was highest goal-scorer for Sunderland last season with eight. He also had five assists. Steven Fletcher is doing more than enough to replace him. Fletcher has scored all the five goals of Sunderland so far. There have not been any major changes apart from this.

What the numbers say

A mixture of long balls, great long-range shooting, some great free kicks and accurate crossing were the mainstay of Sunderland’s offense last season. Their attack ran through Stephané Sessegnon, Sebastian Larsson and Nicklas Bendtner.

Sunderland was poor in the final third and even worse from inside the box (19^th in touches inside the opposition box). They scored 30% of their goals (13) from outside the box. They do not have a lot of through balls (less than 1 per game, 18^th in the EPL) or assists (18^th in assists per goal scored). Sunderland was poor in short passing (15^th in # of completions and completion %). These stats indicate that Sunderland were very direct in attack. The low # of assists per goal is likely due to Sunderland playing a counterattacking style football. (= a lesser emphasis on interplay between multiple players in the final third to create a chance). They used long balls to good effect to get close to the opponents goal and take shots from outside the box. Their shooting and shooting efficiency from inside the box is poor.

So far this season

Steven Fletcher has accounted for all the five goals Sunderland scored this season. They have a hard time keeping the possession of the ball (like last season). They are unbeaten this season with four draws and a win. Their inability to hold on to leads (or scoring an extra goal) has cost them dearly. They had a lead into the second half in four of the five games but have won only once. Their problems with keeping the ball imply that opponents find it easier to breakthrough, especially in the second half when Sunderland is most likely trying to protect a lead or the point.

Steven Fletcher – One man army, so far. Picture courtesy – dailyrecord.co.uk

Sunderland – Defence

Goals conceded	1.21/game – 5^th fewest
Final 3^rd passes completions allowed	100/game 6^th most
Short passes allowed	343/game 2^nd most
Shots on Target Conceded	8^th fewest
Lots of headed clearances	7^th most
Fouls conceded	10.8/game – 8^th fewest
Tackling machines!	1^stin tackles won76% tackle success rate – 5^th highest 5^th in last man tackles
Weak in aerial duels, strong in ground duels	19^thin % of aerial duels won5^th in % of ground duels won
Corners	7^th most corners conceded but conceded just 1 goal from corners, fewest in the league
Make it easy for opponent GKs	3^rd highest GK distribution success for opponent GKs
Opponents get a lot of clean sheets	3^rd highest # of clean sheets for opponents

Sunderland – Defensive summary

Based on the numbers, Sunderland is a clean tackling defence who do not concede many shots on target. However, they allow opponents a lot of short passes & pass completions in the final third. This indicates that they are likely not pressing and defend deep. Opponent GK’s have great success (over 70%, 3^rd in the league) distributing the ball against Sunderland, another indicator that they do not press much and defend off the player. Their relatively low foul count is probably indicative of this. They concede a high number of corners but have just conceded one goal off of corners last season. They are strong in ground duels and are one of the worst teams in aerial duels. They also employ a high number of head clearances.

City had a lot of success against Sunderland in the final third with 181 & 167 completions away and home respectively (average: 135). However, this advantage did not translate into shots on target for City. This could be a side effect of their clean tackling and high # of headed clearances.

Sunderland – Goalkeeping – Simon Mignolet

Goals conceded overall	1.13/game – 6^th fewest
Goals from outside	0.31/game – 4^th most in the league
Saves made	3.2/game – 7^th most
GK distribution efficiency(Successful GK distribution/Total GK distribution)	17^th of 18 GKs with 29 or more starts
Long passes completion	34% – 16^th of 18
Short passes completion rate	77.4% – 17^th of 18(53 attempts 2^nd fewest)
Ratio of Long to short passes	90-10

Sunderland – Goalkeeping Summary

Mignolet is good with saves and does not allow many goals (which, is probably a reflection of the overall defensive scheme, not just the goalkeeper). However, he seems to have trouble distributing and passing the ball. The proportion of long passes of the total passes is highly skewed in favor of the long passes. These numbers indicate that Mignolet hoofs the ball as far as possible and most of the time his passes end in loss of possession.

The low number of short passes and pass completion rate of short passes could be indicative of an overall scheme and/or that Mignolet & the Sunderland central defenders are not very good at passing short from their goal.

This means pressing the ball high in the defensive third of Sunderland could be a very productive strategy for opponents. City forwards might enjoy a lot of success prolonging their possessions in the final third by keeping the pressure on the Sunderland GK and defence.

City vs. Sunderland Head – to – head 2011-12

Sunderland had great success against City last season. They took four points from the Champions
At the Etihad, City needed a big comeback from 1-3 down to salvage a point.
Sebastian Larsson x 2 and Nicklas Bendtner were the scorers for Sunderland. Mario Balotelli x 2 and Alexsandr Kolarov scored for City
At the Stadium of light, Sunderland upset City 1-0 with a late goal from Di Jong Won.
City had 181 (away) and 167 (home) completions in the final third, both higher than their average of 135/game. Shots were close to their game averages.

Final word

City is very likely to have a lot of success pressing Sunderland in their defensive third. They might not find it very difficult to pass short and have lengthy possession spells in the Sunderland final third. However, they need to stay patient as Sunderland defend very well as a team. Sessegnon, Fletcher and Larsson are the three players to watch out for at the other end of the pitch.

MCFC Analytics – Summary of blog posts #5

We had a great meeting this weekend to discuss how to move our community forward. We discussed some great ideas. As @MCFCGavinFleig pointed out on twitter, the next big announcements and steps forward will be public in late November/early December when the “CityAnalyticsCommunity” will be launched. Until then, keep blogging away with the data.

Here is a summary of the blog posts based on #MCFCAnalytics data.

Analytics posts

@MarkTaylor0 – How passing sequences create chances – the title is self-explanatory. Great post
@JDewitt – Long passing in the Premiership – John looks at the long passing and its correlation to finishing position in the league table. Interesting post. A question that came up when I read this post is, how is correlation to points or goals scored instead of position in the league table?
@TheWestStandO digs deeper into Fernando Torres’ struggles in front of goal last season
@ChrisJLilley defines metrics and rates the attacking midfielders, central midfielders and the defensive midfielders of last season.
@We_R_PL – Comparison of Top scorers in EPL
@Hpstats – A better passing statistic this was posted in the comments of summary #4
Fulham – opposition analysis by me

Visualization posts

@AlexThamks – a neat viz of Assists, chances created & key passes per formation + the best 11 for each formation using Tableau Public
@Tomberthon – a visualization of the advanced data set and how to make sense out of it

Other

@MarchiMax has a refined version #Rstats code for parsing the F-24 XML
@DannyPage has implemented a Ruby on rails code for importing the F-24 XML

Past summaries

Summary #4

by Ravi Ramineni on October 1, 2012 • Permalink

Posted in Barclays Premier League, Bolton Wanderers, English Premier League, Fulham, Manchester City, MCFC Analytics, Opta

Tagged #MCFCAnalytics, #Rstats, EPL 2011-12, football analytics, Fulham, Manchester City, MCFC Analytics, Ruby, Soccer analytics, soccer data visualization, Tableau Public

Posted by Ravi Ramineni on October 1, 2012

https://analysefootball.com/2012/10/01/mcfc-analytics-summary-of-blog-posts-5/

Visualizing momentum shifts in Bolton vs. Man City

This is an attempt to visualize the momentum shifts in Bolton vs. City with goals scored and substitutions using the #MCFC analytics advanced data tier – I.

I used possession as a proxy for momentum. The game is divided into 5 minute buckets. If a goal is scored in a bucket, the bucket will end at the minute of the goal scored.
E.g.: 0-4 is bucket #1. If a goal is scored in minute 7, then 5-6 is bucket #2. 7-11 is bucket #3 and so on.

Plots

Figure 1 – Overall cumulative possession difference vs. game time in minutes.

2. Figure 2 – Cumulative possession difference up until a goal is scored.
E.g.: Say 1-0 is scored in minute 27 and 2-0 is scored in minute 38. The cumulative possession difference is calculated from minute #1 through 27. After 1-0, cumulative possession difference is calculated from minute 28 onwards (the date of minute 1 through 27 is excluded).
This helps to see if there is any noticeable shift in the momentum of the game after a goal.

Findings

Overall City has dominated possession. The cumulative possession delta was always negative (= in favor of City) in Figure 1.
When the cumulative possession difference was reset after each goal scored (Figure 2), we see that Bolton tried to take the initiative after City took the lead in Min 26. They really pushed hard after City scored the 0-2, pulling one back within 2 minutes of City’s 2nd goal.
Bolton continued to push for an equalizer until City scored the 1-3 right after the half-time.
Bolton enjoyed more possession as they searched for a goal and did a substitution at min 60 (an attacking midfielder for a holding midfielder) – it seems like the move paid off as they scored 2-3 in min 62.
Bolton continued to push for an equalizer. City subbed out Aguero for Tevez, both attacking players but Tevez is better at playing a deeper role and hold up the ball.
As the game progressed Bolton switched D.Pratley for Chris Eagles (probably a shift in attacking style) and City responded with a defensive move by subbing out Dzeko for Adam Johnson
Those two moves by City helped them restore control. Towards the end, City subbed out attacking midfielder David Silva for fullback Zabaleta, a defender to secure the result in the dying minutes.

This is a very quick and simple interpretation & visualization of the moment shifts. All feedback is welcome.

6 Comments

by Ravi Ramineni on September 17, 2012 • Permalink

Posted in Barclays Premier League, Data Visualization, English Premier League, Football Analytics, Manchester City, MCFC Analytics, Soccer Analytics

Tagged #MCFCAnalytics, Bolton Wanderers, EPL 2011-12, Manchester City, Opta, Soccer analytics, soccer data visualization

Posted by Ravi Ramineni on September 17, 2012

https://analysefootball.com/2012/09/17/visualizing-momentum-shifts-in-bolton-vs-man-city-mcfcanalytics/

Manchester City vs. QPR : Opposition analysis #CityOppostion #MCFCAnalytics

This is an “Opposition analysis” of QPR, City’s opponent on Saturday 1^st September at the Etihad Stadium. I used the #MCFCAnalytics Lite data set to do this analysis.

Picture courtesy : @srands_analyst on twitter

QPR – Offense

Goals scored	16^th
Headed goals	10 – 4^th in the League 24.4% of their goals are from headers
Poor shooting efficiency from outside the box	3^rd in # of shots taken from outside box but 15^th in shooting efficiency (goals scored/{shots on target + shots off target from outside the box}
Long pass efficiency	7^th
Final 3^rd passing	13^th in final third completions

QPR – Key attacking players

Goals	Jamie Mackie (8 goals at 26.7% shooting efficiency) and Djibril Cissé (6 goals at 31.6% shooting efficiency) were the most dangerous goal scoring threats.
Shots	56 – Adil Taraabt took the highest # of shots in QPR 50/56 shots are from outside the box Taraabt also had 32 of his shots blocked, 27 of them from outside the box
Assists	Wright-Philips, Traore, Taraabt and Barton were the top assist providers with 3 each.
Final Third passing	Joey Barton (435) had the maximum completions in the final 3^rd. They have a great replacement for him in Esteban Granero, who is much better than Barton technically but he might need a few games to find his gears in the Premier League Taraabt (322), Faurlin (288) and Wright-Philips (215) are the next 3 in this category. All with an passing completion rate of over 70%.
Other interesting aspects	Taraabt (90 – 42%), Wright-Philips (96 – 37.5%) and Mackie (91 – 27.5%) are the top dribblers of the team.

QPR – Offensive summary

QPR seem to be very direct in their attack. They tend to defend deep and hit on the counter. They scored 10 goals from headers. Adil Taraabt is a very dynamic player but his decision-making is questionable. He takes too many shots from outside the box, many of them either off-target or blocked. Their average of less than 1 goal per away game highlights their trouble scoring away from home.

Joey Barton was one of the key cogs of their attack last season. He will be replaced by the excellent Esteban Granero, a product of the Real Madrid youth system.

The key players for QPR on the attack are Mackie, Wright-Philips and Taraabt.
Granero will be a part of this list as he gets used to the Premier League

Esteban Granero is technically much better and has none of the disciplinary issues of Barton. Granero is very adept at running the game from the midfield and has great technique and touch. His best seasons were at Getafe (on loan from Real Madrid) when he played a key role in taking the the small club from the suburbs of Madrid to within inches of the semi-finals of the UEFA cup 2007-08. He moved back to Real Madrid in 2009 and have not had a lot of playing opportunities since then. He must be eager to have a go at QPR and I expect him to have similar impact at QPR as the other Spanish midfielders are having at their respective Premier league teams. However, I doubt he will have a big impact in the game at Etihad Stadium.

QPR – Defence

Goals conceded	3^rd highest in the league
Shots conceded	4^th
Corners conceded	2^nd
Clearances	2^nd – Also 2^nd highest headed clearances and highest proportion of headed clearances among total clearances
Ground duels wining %	2^nd
Aerial duels winning %	16^th
Tackles winning %	17^th
Red-cards	9 – 1^st in the league

QPR – Defensive summary

“A train-wreck waiting to happen” – Is how I would describe the QPR defense of last season in 5 words. They seem to defend deep and it is likely that their back four is slow. Opponents complete about 10% more passes in QPR’s defensive third on an average compared to their league average. The # of corners conceded and headed clearances tell me that the QPR defence is in a “hurried” mode when the opposition is in QPR’s defensive third. This means they are a fraction too slow to be in the right place at the right time. They are forced to make clearances with no time to think about placement. They are ranked 17^th in tackles won. Some of it is probably due to them being fraction late on the tackles.

QPR – Goalkeeping

Goal keeper metrics	Standing among the peers
Goals conceded overall	17^th in the league
GK distribution efficiency – Kenny (Successful GK distribution/Total GK distribution)	60% – 13^th out of 18 GKs with 29 or more starts
Short passes completion – Kenny	80% – 15^th out of 18 (league average 90%)
Long passes completion –	39% – 11^th out of 18 (league average 39%)
Proportion of Long to short passes – Kenny	90% – 3^rd out of 18 (league average 76%)

QPR – Goalkeeping summary

Patrick Kenny is not with QPR anymore. Robert Green was not any better in the first two games. They have signed the veteran Brazilian keeper Julio Caesar a few days ago. He is an upgrade over Green. However, I am not too sure if their GK distribution strategy would change much. I think that is the key problem – Too much emphasis on long balls and very poor completions rates even with the short passes.

City should enjoy a lot of success if they try to pressure and hurry the QPR keeper.

City vs. QPR Head – to – head 2011-12

City won 3-2 home and away.
City had averaged 200 completions per. game in the final 3^rd vs. QPR. City’s average across the league is 142.5 completions per game. That is an increase of about 40%!
This explains the high number of goals scored by City in their fixtures vs. QPR. (Based on the analysis that there is a strong correlation between completions in the final third and goals scored)
How did QPR score against City?

2 of the 4 goals were headers – a strength of QPR

All 4 goals from inside the box, 1 from a set-play and 3 from open play

One of the goals was a quick counterattack

Scorers : Cissé, Mackie, Boothroyd, Helguson

How did City score vs. QPR?

All 6 from inside the box

2 were headers

5 from open play and 1 from a corner

Scorers : Aguero, Dzeko x 2, Yaya Touré, Zabaleta, Silva

Final word

City should win this game. QPR defence had too many issues last season and based on first two games of the Premiership I am not convinced that they have addressed them. On the other hand, City has a potent offence despite the absence of Aguero. However, QPR did score twice at the Etihad in that crazy season finale. If City defence can keep a tab on Mackie, Wright-Philips and Taraabt, QPR’s chances of scoring would go down dramatically.