MCFC Analytics blogposts Summary #9


In the past week, I found the following posts written using the #MCFCAnalytics data

  1. Some interesting stuff by @PedroAfonso85 building on some previous work  to breakdown the importance of ball possession and some discussion about the oft discussed yet hard to quantify, momentum.
  2. @MarkTaylor0 analyzed Blocked shots to find if blocking shots is a talent.
  3. @hpstats visualized points difference “with/without” a player in  the starting lineup. Also from the same blog is profiling players based on their shooting
  4. @SportsViz has a video with examples of 3D-visualization of passes using the data from Bolton vs. City game

Previous Summaries

Summary #8

Summary #7

Summary #6

Summary #5

Summary #4

Summary #3

Summary #2

Summary #1

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MCFC Analytics blogposts – Summary #8


Here is the list of interesting posts I found in the past week

  1. An interesting post on home advantage and how it manifests itself into football stats by @FbPerspectives. The post also has a link to a detailed paper from 2009 on home advantage.
  2. Guardian Data blog has an interactive visualization of the Bolton – City game by @jburnmurdoch. The viz has a pitch map + a radial diagram that captures the pass direction and length.
  3. The man in the yellow shirt – an analysis of the refs by @PedroAfonso85
  4. An interactive visualization of the direction of a player’s passes by @alekseynp . Some of the outliers are very interesting.
  5. Momentum in Bolton – City game. by @SoccerStatistic . This is a different approach from the previous attempts on visualizing momentum using this data set.

I did not publish anything last week, although I did start writing. Hopefully I will publish something later this week.

Previous Summaries

Summary #7

Summary #6

Summary #5

Summary #4

Summary #3

Summary #2

Summary #1

If I missed any, please post them in the comments section or tweet them to me!

MCFC Analytics – blogposts summary #7


I did not see too many new posts in the past week. I didn’t publish any as I was busy with a different project.

  1. An interactive viz of Bolton – Manchester City  match data by @JBurnMurdoch on @GuardianData blog
  2. @HPStats attempts at defining metrics to be able to cluster players based on their style. Here is a good first step on Passing
  3. @shots_on_target made a summary of vital stats regarding goals, shooting accuracy, penalties etc..
  4. Scouting report on Tim Howard by @footballfactman
  5. An interactive visualization of the full dataset by @PhilyB1976 I posted this in one of the first few summary posts but there is additional information on the site. worth revisiting!
  6. An

Previous Summaries

Summary #6

Summary #5

Summary #4

Summary #3

Summary #2

Summary #1

If I missed any, please post them in the comments section or tweet them to me!

MCFC Analytics-Summary of blogposts #6


This week I saw a few more new bloggers getting into the act with the data.

First up, there was this article by @RWhittall of TheScore.com where Richard talked about “soccer data abuse by some bloggers using the MCFC data”. The gist of the article is that some of the bloggers are extrapolating too much with their conclusions based on one year’s worth of data from one league. The other point made in the article is that the output of the majority of  the work in soccer analytics isn’t groundbreaking and it is just adding a data context to what we already knew.

While I see where Richard is coming from, I don’t quite agree either with his assessment of the state of soccer analytics or the “data abuse” bit.

Unquestionably, we haven’t even scratched the surface of what we can do with data in soccer. The majority of the research work in the soccer analytics is carried out in the private domain.  That is because soccer data is not a commodity like it is in other sports like Baseball. The MCFC & Opta project could be a significant step in the direction of making soccer data more accessible to a wider audience,  if it can get enough passionate people interested in the project. However, like in any type of writing in the public domain, there is the good and the not so good. One of the things we discussed with Gavin Fleig, Head of Performance Analysis at Manchester City, Simon Farrant, Marketing coordinator at Opta et al is to build a community that fosters communication, collaboration and open feedback among the members and the readers. This should help everyone get better in some time.

Without further ado, here are links to some interesting work I found in this past week.

@MarkTaylor0 has a comprehensive piece on the state of soccer analytics and where it stands vis-à-vis other sports like NFL and Baseball. – The case for data analysis in football. This is a must read.

Analytics posts

  1. @PedroAfonso85 has a couple posts using the advanced data set
  2. @ChrisJLilley continues with his positional analysis series with Strikers and Central attacking midfielders
  3. @FootballFactman ‘s piece talks about what to look for in goalkeepers of the premier league
  4. @shots_on_target talks about the correlation between points in fantasy football and attacking stats
  5. In my weekly opposition analysis series I analyzed at Sunderland using last season’s data.

Visualization posts

  1. Earlier today I saw Voetstat, a neat blog by @Voetstat_craig which has some visualizations of pass completion + heatmaps. There are multiple posts. I haven’t had a chance to read all of them yet.
  2. @TomBerthon has this visualization of how goals were scored in the Bolton – City game from last season

If I missed any links, post them in the comments section and tweet them with the hashtag #MCFCAnalytics. I will retweet them.

Previous Summaries

Summary #5

Summary #4

Summary #3

Summary #2

Summary #1

Sounders vs. Timbers – The Cascadia Cup Derby


Warning : No stats or data analysis in this post 🙂

In a weekend filled with great derbies and ‘super-clásicos’ I was lucky enough to watch the “Cascadia Derby”, live. I rarely missed a Sounders home game in the past year or so. This one was special, my first taste of Seattle – Portland. People often ask me what is the atmosphere like at a football game in the US and how does it compare to the best in Europe. I would say Seattle Sounders provide the best atmosphere in MLS with an average crowd of roughly 38000 per game (MLS average is closer to 20,000). And this game had by far the best atmosphere ever at the CenturyLink field.

Seattle Sounders vs. Portland Timbers.

The crowd

The 67K CenturyLink stadium was a sellout. It was a gorgeous and sunny day in Seattle

Official announced attendance : 66,452. And it was noisy. About 3K-4K Timbers fans made the ~200 mile trip up north to the Emerald City. Although these teams have joined the MLS recently, the rivalry is much older when the two clubs were in the lower divisions of US soccer.

Portland had nothing to play for except for the Cascadia Cup. Seattle had clinched a spot in the playoffs. However, they need points to get a better seeding in the playoffs. More on MLS Playoffs

The stadium started filling up around 5:30p. By 6p, it was almost full. Here are a couple of spectacular panorama shots taken by Sarah Rudd.

Pregame – CenturyLink Field

Sounders – Timbers – kick-off

The Tifo being unveiled by the supporter groups

The atmosphere was electric and buzzing (a lot more than usual). Former player and fan favorite Roger Levesque was felicitated in the pre-game. Later he sent the crowd berserk with his rousing introduction to the Sounders’ starting line-up.

The game

The game started at a very high pace with Portland pinning Seattle in its own half in the early minutes. However, Seattle took control of the game gradually and around the 25th minute they scored via an own goal. A few minutes later Eddie Johnson made it 2-0 finishing off a great through ball from Brad Evans. More of the same in the 2nd half with Freddy Montero making it 3-0. The quality of the football wasnt the greatest but rivalry & derby games are much more than that. ,

Highlights

It was an #epic result that takes the Sounders past LA Galaxy into 3rd place with a game in hand. Latest MLS standings

In terms of the Cascadia Cup, if  Vancouver Whitecaps get a result at home vs. Portland next week, Seattle would retain the Cup.

Sunderland – Opposition Analysis


This is an “Opposition analysis” of Sunderland, City’s opponent on Saturday 2012/10/6 at the Etihad. I used the #MCFCAnalytics Lite data set to do this analysis.

Disclaimer: The analysis is primarily based on data from 2011-12 season with some data points from the first six games of 2012-13 season.

Sunderland – Offense

Goals 1.13 per game – 12th (excluding own goals)
Strong on direct free kicks 5 goals – 1st
% of Open play goals 76% – 4th
% of goals from inside the box 69.7% – 19th
% of goals from outside the box 30% – 2nd
Shots on Target 3.71 per game – 18th
Efficiency: Goals/shots On + off Target 7th
Efficiency Inside the box 16th
Efficiency Outside the box 3rd
Assists per Goals scored 18th
Poor from inside the box 19th in proportion of goals from inside & 16th in efficiency
Strong from outside the box 5th most goals and 3rd most efficient from outside
Final 3rd completions / comp % 16th / 14th
Poor in the final third and opposition box 18th in final 3rd touches & 19th in touches in opp. box
Poor in short passingcompletions / comp % 15th /15th
Good in long balls:  # of successful / success % 9th / 8th
Good in Open play crosses 7th in # of crosses & crossing accuracy
Very few Through balls 18th – less than 1 through ball per game
Other Sunderland just took 6 short corners all season, fewest in the league.

Sunderland – Key attacking players (2011-12)

Goals Bendtner – 8, Larsson & Sessegnon – 7 each,

McClean – 5

Shots On Target Bendtner – 23, Sessegnon – 21, Larsson – 17
Efficiency Larsson – 23%, McClean – 17% and Bendtner – 16. %
Assists Sessegnon – 9, Bendtner – 5
Final 3rd Completions Sessegnon – 401, Larsson – 281, Bardsley – 253
Final 3rd Completion% Sessegnon – 77.4%, Larsson – 66.27%, Bendtner – 60.6%
Touches in opposition box Sessegnon – 120, Bendtner – 98

Sunderland – Offensive summary

Major personnel changes for 2012-13

IN – Steven Fletcher; OUT – Nicklas Bendtner

Bendtner was highest goal-scorer for Sunderland last season with eight. He also had five assists. Steven Fletcher is doing more than enough to replace him. Fletcher has scored all the five goals of Sunderland so far. There have not been any major changes apart from this.

What the numbers say

A mixture of long balls, great long-range shooting, some great free kicks and accurate crossing were the mainstay of Sunderland’s offense last season. Their attack ran through Stephané Sessegnon, Sebastian Larsson and Nicklas Bendtner.

Sunderland was poor in the final third and even worse from inside the box (19th in touches inside the opposition box). They scored 30% of their goals (13) from outside the box. They do not have a lot of through balls (less than 1 per game, 18th in the EPL) or assists (18th in assists per goal scored). Sunderland was poor in short passing (15th in # of completions and completion %). These stats indicate that Sunderland were very direct in attack. The low # of assists per goal is likely due to Sunderland playing a counterattacking style football. (= a lesser emphasis on interplay between multiple players in the final third to create a chance). They used long balls to good effect to get close to the opponents goal and take shots from outside the box. Their shooting and shooting efficiency from inside the box is poor.

So far this season

Steven Fletcher has accounted for all the five goals Sunderland scored this season. They have a hard time keeping the possession of the ball (like last season). They are unbeaten this season with four draws and a win. Their inability to hold on to leads (or scoring an extra goal) has cost them dearly. They had a lead into the second half in four of the five games but have won only once. Their problems with keeping the ball imply that opponents find it easier to breakthrough, especially in the second half when Sunderland is most likely trying to protect a lead or the point.

Steven Fletcher – One man army, so far. Picture courtesy – dailyrecord.co.uk

Sunderland – Defence

Goals conceded 1.21/game – 5th fewest
Final 3rd passes completions allowed 100/game 6th most
Short passes allowed 343/game 2nd most
Shots on Target Conceded 8th fewest
Lots of headed clearances 7th most
Fouls conceded 10.8/game – 8th fewest
Tackling machines! 1stin tackles won76% tackle success rate – 5th highest

5th in last man tackles

Weak in aerial duels, strong in ground duels 19thin % of aerial duels won5th in % of ground duels won
Corners 7th most corners conceded but conceded just 1 goal from corners, fewest in the league
Make it easy for opponent GKs 3rd highest GK distribution success for opponent GKs
Opponents get a lot of clean sheets 3rd highest # of clean sheets for opponents

Sunderland – Defensive summary

Based on the numbers, Sunderland is a clean tackling defence who do not concede many shots on target. However, they allow opponents a lot of short passes & pass completions in the final third. This indicates that they are likely not pressing and defend deep. Opponent GK’s have great success (over 70%, 3rd in the league) distributing the ball against Sunderland, another indicator that they do not press much and defend off the player. Their relatively low foul count is probably indicative of this. They concede a high number of corners but have just conceded one goal off of corners last season. They are strong in ground duels and are one of the worst teams in aerial duels. They also employ a high number of head clearances.

City had a lot of success against Sunderland in the final third with 181 & 167 completions away and home respectively (average: 135). However, this advantage did not translate into shots on target for City. This could be a side effect of their clean tackling and high # of headed clearances.

Sunderland – Goalkeeping – Simon Mignolet

Goals conceded overall 1.13/game – 6th fewest
Goals from outside 0.31/game – 4th most in the league
Saves made 3.2/game – 7th most
GK distribution efficiency(Successful GK distribution/Total GK distribution) 17th of 18 GKs with 29 or more starts
Long passes completion 34% – 16th of 18
Short passes completion rate 77.4% – 17th of 18(53 attempts 2nd fewest)
Ratio of Long to short passes 90-10

Sunderland – Goalkeeping Summary

Mignolet is good with saves and does not allow many goals (which, is probably a reflection of the overall defensive scheme, not just the goalkeeper). However, he seems to have trouble distributing and passing the ball. The proportion of long passes of the total passes is highly skewed in favor of the long passes. These numbers indicate that Mignolet hoofs the ball as far as possible and most of the time his passes end in loss of possession.

The low number of short passes and pass completion rate of short passes could be indicative of an overall scheme and/or that Mignolet & the Sunderland central defenders are not very good at passing short from their goal.

This means pressing the ball high in the defensive third of Sunderland could be a very productive strategy for opponents. City forwards might enjoy a lot of success prolonging their possessions in the final third by keeping the pressure on the Sunderland GK and defence.

City vs. Sunderland Head – to – head 2011-12

  • Sunderland had great success against City last season. They took four points from the Champions
  • At the Etihad, City needed a big comeback from 1-3 down to salvage a point.
  • Sebastian Larsson x 2 and Nicklas Bendtner were the scorers for Sunderland. Mario Balotelli x 2 and Alexsandr Kolarov scored for City
  • At the Stadium of light, Sunderland upset City 1-0 with a late goal from Di Jong Won.
  • City had 181 (away) and 167 (home) completions in the final third, both higher than their average of 135/game. Shots were close to their game averages.

Final word

City is very likely to have a lot of success pressing Sunderland in their defensive third. They might not find it very difficult to pass short and have lengthy possession spells in the Sunderland final third. However, they need to stay patient as Sunderland defend very well as a team. Sessegnon, Fletcher and Larsson are the three players to watch out for at the other end of the pitch.

MCFC Analytics – Summary of blog posts #5


We had a great meeting this weekend to discuss how to move our community forward. We discussed some great ideas. As @MCFCGavinFleig pointed out on twitter, the next big announcements and steps forward will be public in late November/early December when the “CityAnalyticsCommunity” will be launched. Until then, keep blogging away with the data.

Here is a summary of the blog posts based on #MCFCAnalytics data.

Analytics posts

  1. @MarkTaylor0How passing sequences create chances – the title is self-explanatory. Great post
  2. @JDewittLong passing in the Premiership – John looks at the long passing and its correlation to finishing position in the league table. Interesting post. A question that came up when I read this post is, how is correlation to points or goals scored instead of position in the league table?
  3. @TheWestStandO digs deeper into Fernando Torres’ struggles in front of goal last season
  4. @ChrisJLilley defines metrics and rates the attacking midfielders, central midfielders and the defensive midfielders of last season.
  5. @We_R_PLComparison of Top scorers in EPL
  6. @Hpstats  – A better passing statistic this was posted in the comments of summary #4
  7. Fulham – opposition analysis by me

Visualization posts

  1. @AlexThamks – a neat viz of Assists, chances created & key passes per formation + the best 11 for each formation using Tableau Public
  2. @Tomberthon  – a visualization of the advanced data set and how to make sense out of it

Other

  1. @MarchiMax has a refined version #Rstats code for parsing the F-24 XML
  2. @DannyPage has implemented a Ruby on rails code for importing the F-24 XML

Past summaries

Summary #4

Summary #3

Summary #2

Summary #1

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