All posts for the month September, 2012

Fulham – Opposition Analysis #FFC vs. #MCFC

This is an “Opposition analysis” of Fulham, City’s opponent on Saturday 29 September at Craven Cottage. I used the #MCFCAnalytics Lite data set to do this analysis.

Goals	1.12 per game – 12^th (excluding own goals)
% of Open play goals	74.4% – 6^th
% of goals from inside the box	86% – 6^th
% of goals from outside the box	14% – 15^th
Shots on Target	5.13 pg – 7^th
Efficiency: Goals/shots On + off Target	11% – 17^th
Assists per Goals scored	0.74 – 7^th
Strong from inside the box	6^st in % of goals from inside the box
Weak from outside the box	15^th in % of goals from outside the box
Final 3^rdcompletions / comp %	9^th / 8^th
Short passescompletions / comp %	8^th / 7^th
Poor at winning corners and scoring from corners	14^th– corners won – 4.92 corners/game18^thgoals from corners – 416^th Headed goals – 7
Inability to score first	Scored the first goal 13 times. (3rd worst in the league).

Fulham – Key attacking players

Goals	Clint Dempsey – 17 Pogrebnyak – 6 Zamora – 5
Shots On Target	Clint Dempsey – 58, Dembélé – 22,Johnson – 16
Efficiency	Pogrebynak – 46.2%Zamora – 21.7%Dempsey – 15.6%
Assists	Dempsey – 6 Zamora &Murphy –5 each
Final 3^rd Completions	Dembélé – 472, Murphy – 461, Dempsey – 416, Duff – 244
Final 3^rd Completion%	Dembélé– 84.1%, Duff – 80%, Dempsey – 75.4% Ruiz – 71.2%
Touches in opposition box	Dempsey – 150, Zamora – 73, Johnson – 64, Duff – 62
Other interesting aspects	Duff crosses a lot with a very low % of success

Fulham – Offensive summary

Personnel changes

Fulham has a huge player turnover on the offensive side. The top three players in goals, assists, final third passing and shots in the last season are not with the team anymore.

Clint Dempsey and Moussa Dembélé played a huge part in Fulham’s comfortable 9^th place finish. Dempsey scored 17 goals and provided six assists. That accounts for about 50% of all Fulham’s goals. Apart from the goals and assists, he completed 416 passes in the final third (third most in Fulham) and had a team, high 150 touches in the opposition’s 18-yard box.

Dembélé had a big impact in the midfield last season and often was the origin of the attacking moves that ended in a Dempsey shot. He was Fulham’s best passer in the final third with 472 completions at an 84.1% completion rate.

The departure of Danny Murphy along with Dempsey and Dembélé means Fulham has lost all three of its top three passers in the final third. They have added Dimitar Berbatov who could probably make up for the goals of Dempsey. Costa Rican international Bryan Ruiz is likely to feature a lot more in the construction of the attacks. They are off to a fast start so far with three wins in five games tied with Arsenal & City on 9 points. They have also picked up Giorgos Karagounis, who if healthy can be of great value to the team. Hugo Rodallega from Wigan is also a very good pick up. However, questions on who will fill the void left by Murphy and Dembélé remain unanswered.

What the numbers say

Fulham’s attack ran through Dembélé, Murphy and Dempsey. Short passing and shooting from inside the box is the salient feature of Fulham attack. They are poor in shooting efficiency (17^th), converting corners (18^th) and headed goals (16^th). This points to a predominantly ground based attack through the middle. They do not cross a whole lot and Damien Duff who has attempted most open play crosses in Fulham has very poor accuracy. It is likely that opposing teams know that Duff has a propensity to cross the ball and come well prepared to defend them.

Fulham were also very poor at a scoring the first goal (18^th) only better than the relegated Bolton & Wolves. This means they are likely a team that is passive in attack and let the opposition take the initiative.

So far this season

Berbatov, Duff, Ruiz have had fast starts to their season. Fulham have scored the most goals (12) and have the fifth best pass completion rate in the league so far this season. Better numbers than City in both categories. Apart from Manchester United away, they have not played any big teams yet. They are unbeaten at home and this could be a big test for both Fulham and City.

Berbatov – key man for the Cottagers. Photo courtesy : UK Eurosport

Fulham – Defence

Goals conceded	1.29/game – 8^th lowest
Final 3^rd passes completions allowed	101.1/game 5^th highest
Opponents Final 3^rd pass completion %	68.94% – 2^nd highest
Successful open play crosses allowed	4.08/game – 4^th highest
Shots on Target Conceded	3^rd highest2^nd highest – From outside the box
Tackles	Win 77% of their tackles – 3^rd most18^st in last man tackles
Fouls committed	9.9/game – 4^th fewest
Other aspects	Allowed the opposition to score first in 22 games (5^th most)

Fulham – Defensive summary

The numbers from last year indicate that Fulham tends to defend deep and allows opponents a lot completions and possession in their defensive third. They also concede a high number of shots conceded from outside the box. This is a sign of passive defending. They do not seem to close down quickly enough to avoid good shots from outside the box. When they tackle, they tend to tackle cleanly and win a high percentage of them. They also allow a high number of successful open play crosses. Since crossing is inherently has a low percentage of success, this is another sign that Fulham defenders do not close down quickly. They commit very few fouls and do not concede many corners. All in all a defence, which is not aggressive, “lets you play” and tackle clean cleanly.

Fulham allowed their opponents score the first goal 22 times (5^th most) as opposed to scoring only 13 themselves (third lowest total). Another indicator of the recurring theme of passiveness in their play.

Fulham – Goalkeeping – Mark Schwarzer

Goals conceded overall	1.23/game – 10^th fewest
Saves made	11^th most
GK distribution efficiency(Successful GK distribution/Total GK distribution)	3^nd best – 72%
Long passes completion	34% – 3^rd lowest
Short passes completion rate	95.2% – 5^th best
Ratio of Long to short passes	70-30

Fulham – Goalkeeping Summary

Mark Schwarzer has very high distribution efficiency. He is also very good at short passes. Schwarzer has a propensity to punch the ball than any other keeper in the Premier League (among keepers who started at least 20 games). He is also the second highest in the league in catches/game & sixth highest in saves per game.

These stats correlate to the high number of shots on target allowed by Fulham’s defence. Schwarzer’s good goalkeeping is one of the reasons why Fulham did not concede many more goals.

City vs. Fulham Head – to – head 2011-12

§ Fulham came back from 0-2 down to draw 2-2 at the craven cottage. Aguero scored twice for City. Zamora and Kompany’s own goal tied it for Fulham.

§ City easily won 3-0 at the Etihad. Aguero, Dzeko & Chris Baird – own goal were the scorers.

§ City had more final 3^rd completions (139. Season average 135) away from home than at home.

§ Fulham had a better final third completion percentage away from home than at home.

Final word

Fulham have played well and have scored a league-high 12 goals so far despite so many new faces in their attack. City will have their hands full defending the likes of Berbatov, Ruiz and Duff. City has not had a clean sheet so far this season. Will there be a lot of goals in this one?

To win City needs to:

§ Control Ruiz and Duff’s influence would be key to win this game. Berbatov is probably more talented than Dempsey but Fulham’s midfield is not as strong as it was last season.

§ Take advantage of the passivity of the Fulham defence. They allow a lot of possession to their opponents in their defensive third and allow opponents to take many shots on target.

§ Be aggressive and take the lead. Fulham has let opponents score the first goal 22 times last season. City has a great record when they score first (25 W, 2 D & 1 L last season).

1 Comment

by Ravi Ramineni on September 26, 2012 • Permalink

Posted in Barclays Premier League, English Premier League, Football Analytics, Fulham, Manchester City, MCFC Analytics, Opposition Analysis, Opta

Tagged #CityOpposition, #MCFCAnalytics, EPL, FFC, Fulham, Fulham vs. City, MCFC, Opposition Analysis, Opta, Soccer analytics

Posted by Ravi Ramineni on September 26, 2012

https://analysefootball.com/2012/09/26/fulham-opposition-analysis-ffc-vs-mcfc/

MCFC Analytics – Summary of blog posts #4

It has been about a month since the basic MCFC data set has been released and it is great to see lots of people churning out stuff using both the basic and advanced data sets.

Based on the tweets with #MCFCAnalytics tag, there are quite a few peoples’ projects are in progress. Good luck to all of you. Make sure you share your project/blog links with the hashtag.

Some people are looking for partners and contributors to the projects they are working on. If you are interested, please keep a tab on the #MCFCAnalytics tab and get in touch with folks directly.

Analysis posts

@MarkTaylor0 – Analyzing the passes by comparing them to their expected pass completion rates using passes of James Milner in Bolton Vs. Manchester City from 2011-12 season.
Mark also has post on how Man City and Bolton passed the ball
@Jdewitt – How goals are scored in EPL
@ChrisJLilley – Analyzing center-backs of the premier league
@analysefooty (this blog!)Opposition analysis of Arsenal

Visualization posts

@DanJHarrington – a very interesting visualizations of passes using Vector diagrams in Tableau Public
@MarchiMax – a visualization of where the ball is a few seconds before a shot is taken
@Ongoalsscored – Visualization of the goalscorer’s body parts. Very neat!

If I missed any please post your links in the comments section.

Links to previous summaries

Summary #1

Summary #2

Summary #3

Feel free to tweet me or email me if you want to chat with me on something specific!

10 Comments

by Ravi Ramineni on September 24, 2012 • Permalink

Posted in Arsenal, Barclays Premier League, Bolton Wanderers, Data Visualization, English Premier League, Football Analytics, Manchester City, MCFC Analytics, Opposition Analysis, Opta, Uncategorized

Tagged #MCFCAnalytics, EPL 2011-12, football analytics, MCFC Analytics, Soccer analytics, soccer data visualization, Tableau Public

Posted by Ravi Ramineni on September 24, 2012

https://analysefootball.com/2012/09/24/mcfc-analytics-summary-of-blog-posts-4/

Arsenal – Opposition Analysis

This is an “Opposition analysis” of Arsenal, City’s opponent on Sunday 23rd September at the Etihad Stadium. I used the #MCFCAnalytics Lite data set to do this analysis

Arsenal – Offense

Open play goals – bread & butter Goals scored % of Open play goals Shots on Target Shots on Target inside the box Shot efficiency Goals/shots On + off Target Overall Outside the box Inside the box Assists per Goals scored	3^rd in Aggregate, from inside the box and from open play 1^st 3^rd 1st 3^rd 7^th 5^th 5^th
Strong from inside the box	1^st in # of shots on target
Weak from outside the box	16^th in % of goals from outside the box
Passing Final 3^rd completions / comp % Short passescompletions / comp % Long passes completions / comp % Long balls completions / comp %	3^rd / 4^th 1^st / 6^th 16^th/ 7^th 20^th / 19^th
Other	2^nd – open play touches in the opposition’s 18yard box 18^th in open play crossing efficiency successful open play crosses/successful + unsuccessful open play crosses
Importance of 1^st goal	Scored the first goal 23 times – 3^rd in EPL Record when scoring first 16 W – 3 D – 4 L Record when not scoring first 5 W – 4 D – 6 L

Arsenal – Key attacking players

Goals	Van Persie – 30Walcott – 8Arteta & Vermaelen – 6 each
Shots On Target Efficiency	Van Persie – 82, Walcott – 34, Ramsey – 18, Gervinho – 17 Van Persie – 21.2%, Arteta & Verlmaelen – 23%, Walcott – 13.7%
Assists	Song – 11, Van Persie – 9, Walcott – 8, Gervinho – 6
Final 3rd passing Completions Completion %	Arteta – 617, Ramsey – 502, Rosicky– 501 Arteta – 85.7%, Gervinho – 80.9%, Sagna– 80.1%
Other interesting aspects	Immediate impact of Santi Cazorla, Lucas Podolski and Olivier Giroud

Arsenal – Offensive summary

Personnel changes

RVP was colossal for Arsenal last season with 30 goals. The 2^nd highest goal-scorer for Arsenal was Theo Walcott with 8. The Dutchman is not with club anymore. He is replaced by the three-headed monster, Podolski – Giroud – Cazorla.

At first sight it might seem like an RVP-less Arsenal would be a lot easier to defend. It might even be true for the first handful of games of the season. However, once Giroud, Podolski and Santi Cazorla are in-sync with each other and with Arsene Wenger’s scheme, they will be a much harder team to defend.

As Arsene Wenger pointed out after the 6-1 win over Southampton, when you have someone like RVP who scored 30 goals, the opposition knows who will get the ball. Arsenal have added variety to their attack with Giroud, Podolski and Cazorla upfront. All three can shoot, score, assist and work to create space for the others.

While Giroud has not scored yet, his movement has been intelligent and has been unlucky on occasion. Santi Cazorla has slotted in seamlessly at Arsenal (and in the EPL) and much of the same for Lucas Podolski. Cazorla leads EPL in completions in the final third and already has a goal and 2 assists. Podolski has 2 goals and an assist.

What the 2011-12 numbers say

Based on last year’s numbers Arsenal attack is primarily based on short passing and taking high percentage shots from close range. They are 1^st in short passes completed and 1^st in shots on target from inside the box. Arsenal also gets majority of their goals from open-play. They are 2^nd in touches inside opponents’ 18-yard box. Arsenal also have a high assist to goal ratio. Arsenal are bottom of the table in long balls and are 16^th in long pass completions. They also do not cross particularly well.

All this put together: Arsenal pass, pass and pass some more until they get inside the area. Once inside the area they try to pass again before taking a high percentage shot (or miss the shooting opportunity).

They were average to mediocre at converting corners and set pieces, although that might change with the arrival of Steve Bould as Wenger’s deputy. Steve is known for his preparation and tactical work on the set pieces. We have already seen some of it this season with Cazorla making some signs holding up the ball before taking corners. Both Cazorla and Lucas Podolski are very good free-kick takers and Cazorla has a powerful outside shot. He led La Liga last season with 5 goals from outside the box (including direct free kicks).

Santi Cazorla – Genius : Photo Courtesy – Guardian

I have written a piece about Santi Cazorla’s impact on a football team a few weeks ago. He has already had a big impact at Arsenal. Not only does he add bite to the attack upfront, his arrival also allows Arteta to play much deeper in the central midfield, which seems to suit him better. This also allows Arsenal to quickly transition to their defensive shape when not in possession. Cazorla (and Podolski) both track back to defend when they lose the ball. Something that RVP was not very good at.

To slow the Arsenal offense, City needs to find a way to minimize the impact of Cazorla and Podolski. Arsenal is a bit weak at fullbacks due to the absence of right back Bacary Sagna. Carl Jenkinson is playing in his place and has looked suspect. They do not attack much on the right, as Jenkinson stays conservative for the most part. Gibbs on the left side has been much more adventurous. If you do a heat map of Arsenal attacks so far this season, I will not be surprised if it is skewed to the left.

To slowdown Cazorla will not be easy. During his time at Villarreal, teams like Barça would push their fullbacks up and force Cazorla to defend the full back, thus pushing him deep and further away from the high-value areas.

Arsenal – Defence

Goals conceded	49 – 8^th lowest
Touches in final 3^rd allowed	Lowest in EPL
Shots Conceded	3^rd lowest3^rd lowest– From inside the box2^nd lowest – From outside the box
Tackles	1^st in last man tackles
Clearances	2^nd lowest in all clearances & headed clearances
Blocks	Lowest

Arsenal – Defensive summary

After their early season funk and the 8-2 loss at the Old Trafford Arsenal have defended really well last season. They allowed the lowest # of touches in the final 3^rd and the 3^rd lowest # of shots in the league.

Arsenal are also 1^st in last man tackles with 25 (12 more than the 2^nd best). This implies that they most likely defended with a high backline and tried to recover possession as quickly as possible. Since they keep the ball a lot, it reduces the touches for the opposition in Arsenal’s defensive third. The last man tackles were by center-backs to cut out the through balls.(Koscielny – 9, Vermaelen – 5 & Mertesacker – 3). With such a defensive scheme, it is not surprising that Arsenal forced the highest # of offsides and have let in 4^th highest # of through balls. Arsenal defence also has the lowest # of blocks and 2^nd lowest # of clearances. They defending far away from their area, so there is a less need for clearances.

This season, so far has been a slightly different story. Arsenal are defending deeper (opinion based on watching games) and more compactly (2 lines of 4 very close to each other). There is more emphasis on defending set pieces and corners. This could all be due to Steve Bould but could also be due to the absence of Bacary Sagna or probably a bit of both. They have conceded just once so far (on what seemed like gaffe by Szczesny).

By defending deeper Arsenal might concede a lot more corners, crosses and throw-ins close to the area but it also reduces their giving up breakaway attacks and through ball opportunities.

Arsenal – Goalkeeping – Wojciech Szczesny

Goals conceded overall	49 – tied for 11^th lowest
Saves	Lowest in EPL
Clean sheets	13 – tied for 5^th most
GK distribution efficiency(Successful GK distribution/Total GK distribution)	2^nd best
Long passes completion	39%
Short passes completion rate	95.5% – 3^rd best
Proportion of Long to short passes	51-49

Arsenal – Goalkeeping Summary

Szczesny is one of the best young goalkeepers in the league prone to the occasional error (like last week vs. Southampton). He is one of the best short passer and 2^nd best distribution. He also has one of the most balanced long passes to short passes ratio at 51:49. This stat underlines further the Arsenal philosophy of short passes.

He did concede a lot of goals (49) but a lot of it is down to Arsenal’s defensive scheme. They used a high backline, which means when the opposition forwards beat the high line, they were more likely to have a favourable match-up in terms of numbers and a clear sight of the goal. Szczesny’s league lowest # of total saves could very likely be a side effect of the overall defensive scheme.

City vs. Arsenal Head – to – head 2011-12

City won at home 1 – 0 and Arsenal won at home 1 – 0
City missed Yaya Toure in the game at Emirates and failed to register a shot on target for the only time all season.
City also had a season low 53 successful passes in the final third in the game at Emirates (season average : 135)
Even at the game in Etihad City only managed 105 successful passes.
Importance of 1^st goal – Both teams have impressive records when scoring first, especially City
- City’s record when scoring first is 25 Wins 2 Draws and 1 Loss
- Arsenal’s record when scoring first is 16 Wins 3 Draws and 4 Losses

Final word

Last season Arsenal gave Manchester City two of its toughest games of the season. They did not allow City to enjoy the possession dominance in the final 3^rd they are used vs. rest of the teams in the EPL. The games were very close. Small details and moments of individual brilliance (or an error) determined the results.

To win, City needs:

to limit the influence of Cazorla and Podolski.
Take advantage of one of the few weaknesses of Arsenal, the fullbacks – especially on the right side.
Minimize Arsenal’s touches in the final 3^rd – Arsenal will enjoy a lot of possession due to the nature of their game. However, limiting their possession in the high-value areas will be key to City’s success.
Score first – City has an impeccable record of 25W 2D 1L when scoring first
David Silva, Yaya Toure, Balotelli and Tevez need to have great games for City. The injury to Samir Nasri at the Bernabeu could be a big blow if it forces him to miss out the Sunday’s clash.

1 Comment

by Ravi Ramineni on September 20, 2012 • Permalink

Posted in Arsenal, English Premier League, Football Analytics, Manchester City, MCFC Analytics, Opposition Analysis, Opta, Soccer Analytics

Tagged Arsenal, Arsenal vs. City, EPL, Lucas Podolski, MCFC Analytics, Santi Cazorla

Posted by Ravi Ramineni on September 20, 2012

https://analysefootball.com/2012/09/20/arsenal-opposition-analysis/

MCFC Analytics – Summary of blog posts # 3

Thanks for the amazing response to Summary of blog posts #1 & Summary of blog posts #2

I also want to thank people who have reached out to me via twitter with links to their blogs & posts.

Goalscorer ‘footedness’ by @DavidAHopkins measures the footedness or the foot favoured by Premier League goalscorers.

How do the more successful clubs keep the ball in EPL by @JDewitt talks about how the top teams in EPL keep possession. Also by John is Successful Passing and Winning

A sneak peek of a very interesting carto by @Kennethfield Charlie Adam’s “passing wheel”

Football Philosophy – Long passes by @Poolq1984 explores the importance of long ball in football.

@We_R_PL has a nice post on how to use the MCFC dataset more efficiently. He also has spreadsheet which has the own goals calculated per team.

@footballfactman has a post on Darron Gibson using a mix of data from MCFC dataset, whoscored and statszone

The always excellent MarkTaylor0 has detailed post Analysing the quality of shots in Bolton – Manchester City game using the advanced dataset.

@ChrisJLilley has 3 posts on his blog using MCFC data

– GK positional analysis

– Premier league game changers Part I & Part II

@DanJHarrington has cranked up a lot of things using the advanced dataset

1. an interactive tableau viz to see touches of each player in Bolton -City on the pitch.

2. Passing visualization using D3.js

3. Dan also has some interesting visualization work in progress. There is a cool video in the link showing ball movement.

Network passing diagrams by @DevinPleuler

Bolton – http://t.co/mcRQ0oHU

Man City – http://t.co/6mtGgJQS

Extracting data from XML

There have been some questions regarding this and some folks have come up with solutions

1. If you have MS Excel 2007 or a later version you can open the file in XML. The only issue with is that XML’s are nested and Excel converts this into a very flat format. So you will see multiple rows for the same events. For example: A successful pass has multiple rows indicating the direction, the x,y coordinates of where it is passed to. Read the data spec thoroughly to understand how the data is formatted in the XML. It will help understand the data much better.

2. Code for R users to extract the F-24 XML by @MarchiMax

3. Code snippets from @JBrisson to extract events from the F-24 XML

4. If you are into programming, most languages have XML parsers. A simple search will get you code snippets to start with.
If I missed any links, please let me know via Twitter or comment on the blog post. Always use #MCFCAnalytics tag in twitter so I can pick them up easily!

6 Comments

by Ravi Ramineni on September 17, 2012 • Permalink

Posted in Barclays Premier League, Bolton Wanderers, Data Visualization, English Premier League, Manchester City, MCFC Analytics, Opposition Analysis, Opta, Premier League, Soccer Analytics, Stoke City, Tableau

Tagged #MCFCAnalytics, EPL 2011-12, football analytics, MCFC Analytics, Soccer analytics, soccer data visualization, Tableau Public

Posted by Ravi Ramineni on September 17, 2012

https://analysefootball.com/2012/09/17/mcfc-analyticssummary-of-blog-posts-3/

Visualizing momentum shifts in Bolton vs. Man City

This is an attempt to visualize the momentum shifts in Bolton vs. City with goals scored and substitutions using the #MCFC analytics advanced data tier – I.

I used possession as a proxy for momentum. The game is divided into 5 minute buckets. If a goal is scored in a bucket, the bucket will end at the minute of the goal scored.
E.g.: 0-4 is bucket #1. If a goal is scored in minute 7, then 5-6 is bucket #2. 7-11 is bucket #3 and so on.

Plots

Figure 1 – Overall cumulative possession difference vs. game time in minutes.

2. Figure 2 – Cumulative possession difference up until a goal is scored.
E.g.: Say 1-0 is scored in minute 27 and 2-0 is scored in minute 38. The cumulative possession difference is calculated from minute #1 through 27. After 1-0, cumulative possession difference is calculated from minute 28 onwards (the date of minute 1 through 27 is excluded).
This helps to see if there is any noticeable shift in the momentum of the game after a goal.

Findings

Overall City has dominated possession. The cumulative possession delta was always negative (= in favor of City) in Figure 1.
When the cumulative possession difference was reset after each goal scored (Figure 2), we see that Bolton tried to take the initiative after City took the lead in Min 26. They really pushed hard after City scored the 0-2, pulling one back within 2 minutes of City’s 2nd goal.
Bolton continued to push for an equalizer until City scored the 1-3 right after the half-time.
Bolton enjoyed more possession as they searched for a goal and did a substitution at min 60 (an attacking midfielder for a holding midfielder) – it seems like the move paid off as they scored 2-3 in min 62.
Bolton continued to push for an equalizer. City subbed out Aguero for Tevez, both attacking players but Tevez is better at playing a deeper role and hold up the ball.
As the game progressed Bolton switched D.Pratley for Chris Eagles (probably a shift in attacking style) and City responded with a defensive move by subbing out Dzeko for Adam Johnson
Those two moves by City helped them restore control. Towards the end, City subbed out attacking midfielder David Silva for fullback Zabaleta, a defender to secure the result in the dying minutes.

This is a very quick and simple interpretation & visualization of the moment shifts. All feedback is welcome.

6 Comments

by Ravi Ramineni on September 17, 2012 • Permalink

Posted in Barclays Premier League, Data Visualization, English Premier League, Football Analytics, Manchester City, MCFC Analytics, Soccer Analytics

Tagged #MCFCAnalytics, Bolton Wanderers, EPL 2011-12, Manchester City, Opta, Soccer analytics, soccer data visualization

Posted by Ravi Ramineni on September 17, 2012

https://analysefootball.com/2012/09/17/visualizing-momentum-shifts-in-bolton-vs-man-city-mcfcanalytics/

Stoke City vs. Manchester City–Opposition Analysis

This is an “Opposition analysis” of Stoke City, Manchester City’s opponent on Saturday 15st September at the Britannia Stadium. I used the #MCFCAnalytics Lite data set to do this analysis.

Stoke – Offense

Offensively bad Goals scored Shots on Target Shots off Target	20th 20th 14th
Strong in the airHeaded goalsHeaded shots (on + off target)	14 – 3rd in the League – 40% (14/35) of their goals are from headers 2nd
Poor Final 3rd passing Completions in final 3rd	19th
Lots of “throw ball” Attempts on goal from throws (on + off target	1st

Stoke – Key attacking players

Goals	Peter Crouch – 10 – 5 from headers Jonathan Walters – 7
Shots	55 – Jonathan Walters took the highest # of shots for Stoke followed by 49 – Peter Crouch Robert Huth leads the Headers with 13 (on + off target)
Assists	Mathew Etherington – 7 Jermaine Pennant – 6 Jonathan Walters – 5
Final third passing	Peter Crouch (286 – 46% completion rate) had the maximum completions in the final 3rd. Glenn Whelan (268 – 63%) and Jonathan Walters (253 – 54%) are the next best passers in the final 3rd.
Other interesting aspects	1st in Assists to Goals ratio

Stoke – Offensive summary

Stats from last season indicate that Stoke is very “direct” in its attack (my “Eureka” moment right there!). Headed goals constitute 40% of their total goals scored. They were last in goals scored and shots on target. Overall, a very poor offensive record.

Peter Crouch is Stoke’s top-scorer. Jonathan Walters is the most valuable offensive player who can score (7 goals) as well as provide (5 assists) and is one of their most active passers in the final third.

Peter Crouch has the most # of completions in the final third, but that is not saying much. His completion % is below par. It is very likely that Stoke’s offensive game plan is to lob long balls in the direction of Peter Crouch, whose subsequent pass(or header) is easily intercepted. Stoke ranked last in the # of corners won. This is partly explained by the fact they are 19th in final 3rd completions – Could it be because Stoke is not spending enough time in the final 3rd to force clearances or mistakes from opposing defenders?

Stoke have the league’s highest Assist-to-Goals ratio. Stoke are very poor shooting from outside the box. The two stats put together imply that they neither have someone who can make dangerous solo runs at the defence and create a goal scoring opportunity on their own nor possess a goal-scoring threat from outside the box. Pulis has addressed the latter by signing Charlie Adam, whose 40-yard boomers will at least add another dimension to their attack. Adam’s signing should also improve their passing in the final 3rd.

They signed free agent Michael Owen last week in an effort improve their goal scoring. It is likely that Tony Pulis is looking for someone who can pounce on the knockdowns by Peter Crouch in and around the 18-yard box and take high percentage shots on goal. Not a bad idea in theory but I am skeptical on the kind of impact Michael Owen is going to have in the Stoke system.
New signing US defender Geoff Cameron will provide cover for Rory Delap with his powerful throw.
All their new signings are geared towards upgrading personnel for their direct approach rather than try something different.

Stoke – Defence

Goals conceded	53 – tied for 7th
Penalties conceded	7 – tied for 4th
Shots conceded	2nd – From outside the box 13th – From inside the box
Corners conceded	5th
Aerial duels	2nd – Total duels 1st – Duels won & 1st – Duels winning %
Ground duels won %	20th
Tackles	20th – Tackles won 20th – Tackles winning %
Clearances	1st – headed clearances 1st – total clearances
Fouls committed	5th
Pitch size	100 x 64 (vs. Man City’s 105 x 68) – smallest in EPL

Stoke – Defensive summary

Stoke rely heavily on their strong and physical aerial game in the defense as well. Stoke create the 2nd highest # of aerial duel situations in the league and are the best in the league in winning % of aerial duels. This shows Stoke’s clear affinity to play the ball in the air to take advantage of the physical conditions of its players. On the flip side, Stoke are the worst in the league in winning ground duels & tackles.

Stoke have the highest # of clearances 1910 (459 more than Norwich who are second. League average 1128). They also have the highest # of headed clearances in 959 (159 more than QPR who are second. League average is 575). This indicates that Stoke defenders are probably slow and tend to react late and get into situations where they have to make a clearance. They conceded the 5th highest # of corners in the league.

Britannia stadium has the smallest pitch in all of Premier league. It is 4 meters narrower, 5 meters shorter and 10.36% smaller in area than that of Manchester City. This means less space to work with on the ground. The passing angles for players like David Silva, Tevez et al, will be restricted. It will make it easier for Stoke defenders to close down the attacking players of the opposition despite their inferior technique and slowness. It also makes the aerial game a bit easier as the likelihood of completing a pass through the air is probably easier than passing on the ground in a small and crowded field. (This could also be the reason why Stoke defenders are forced to make so many headed clearances as the opposing teams are forced to play the ball in the air to have a better chance of completing a pass in and around the 18-yard box).

City should field as many players as possible who can pass the ball in tight spaces to move the ball on the ground close to their 18-yard box to force hurried clearances, defensive mistakes and set pieces. Stoke give up the 2nd highest # of shots on target from outside the box. Yaya Toure must fancy his chances of scoring a goal in this game.

Stoke are reasonably good (13th lowest) at conceding shots from inside the box. This could be due to their physical defending style. If the ref is “letting them play” then Stoke defence could frustrate attackers of the opposition and force them to settle for shots from the outside.

Stoke – Goalkeeping (Asmir Begovic)

Goals conceded	31 – 1.41 goals per game 7th (for All GKs with 20 or more starts)
GK distribution efficiency (Successful GK distribution/Total GK distribution)	67% – 11th
Long passes completion	51% – 1st
Short passes completion rate	75% – 19th (only 24 short passes attempted)
Proportion of Long to short passes	95% – 1st (league average 76)

Stoke – Goalkeeping Summary

I have considered only Asmir Begovic’s numbers for this analysis, as he is the starter this season. He is the best in the league at completing long passes and one of the worst goalkeepers at completing short passes. 95% of all passes attempted by Begovic are long (1st in the league). He gave up 1.41 goals per game, 7th highest in the league. However, he only conceded 0.727 goals per game ( 8 goals in 11 games) with 4 clean-sheets at home. Overall Stoke gave up only 20 goals in 19 home games. This was one of the main reasons for their survival last season.

City vs. Stoke Head – to – head 2011-12

City drew 1-1 at the Britannia and won 3-0 at home
Can you guess who scored the away goal for City and from where? Yaya Toure, from outside the box. Peter Crouch scored for Stoke.
In the home game at the Etihad, Aguero – 2 and Adam Johnson – 1.

Final word

City will find the going tough but should win this game. The key for City is to stay patient with their passing game and not be drawn into the physical and aerial battle that Stoke is so comfortable. Stoke do not create many clear scoring chances. If the City defence can keep their errors to a minimum, Stoke will most likely not score.

MCFC Analytics – summary of blog posts # 2

I got good response for the first summary post I did last week. Here is a summary of articles done using MCFC Analytics data in the past week.

@MarkTaylor0 did a great post called “How teams win”. Mark calculated a list of various correlations that lead to wins.

Mark also did another interesting post on Newcastle’s 2011/12 season and the role of luck in their success.

@JimmyCoverdale Did a post enumerating how “Will he score goals in the Premier League? Is a wrong question to ask “ of newcomers to the league.

Jimmy also has a great post discussing the “Effectiveness of Crossing and the correlation with chances created”

@Zahlenwerkstatt did a post ranking goalkeepers in the 2011-12 season based on minutes played, save % and goals conceded.
I have made a couple of follow-ups based on the feedback of “Final 3rd Analysis“ Follow up #1 & Follow up #2

I have a couple of new posts lined up for later this week.

@OptaPro & Gavin Fleig‘s update on the Advanced data & T & Cs

Simon and Gavin released the updated T & Cs this past week allaying apprehensions of some of the bloggers regarding some of the language in the original T & Cs.

They have also announced that the first installment of the advanced data set will be released this week! I am excited.

If you find an article that is using MCFC Analytics data and is not posted here, please let me know. I will add it in the next week’s summary.

10 Comments

by Ravi Ramineni on September 10, 2012 • Permalink

Posted in Barclays Premier League, English Premier League, Football Analytics, MCFC Analytics, Opta, Soccer Analytics

Tagged #MCFCAnalytics, MCFC Analytics, Opta, OptaPro, Premier League, Soccer analytics

Posted by Ravi Ramineni on September 10, 2012

https://analysefootball.com/2012/09/10/mcfc-analytics-summary-of-blog-posts-2/

Final 3rd analysis – more follow ups

Thanks a lot for all the feedback and discussion regarding the final third analysis. Here are a few follow-ups on the feedback.

Feedback: The correlation between goals scored and passes in the final third is driven by the top 5 goal scoring clubs. If they are removed from the data set, the correlation might be weak.
This was brought up by @WillTGM & @Chumolo

Follow-up:

The correlation is not nearly as strong if the top 5 (goals scored) are removed. However, 5 teams constitute 25% of the sample space. If we cherry pick the top 5, it is not surprising that the correlation becomes much weaker.
I did an experiment choosing 15 clubs randomly from the 20. In several such experiments, the correlation was strong and significant. R² varied between 0.56 and 0.87. The regression was significant. (F-test)
On a similar note, if outliers like Liverpool and Newcastle are excluded, the correlation becomes much stronger.

Feedback: Significance of the regression

@rui_xu brought up a great point about the importance of the significance of the regression and how just R²might not tell the whole story.

Follow-up:
I did the F-test for all the regressions with the following results

For the overall final third completions vs. total goals scored over a season analysis – the regression was significant

For the game level final third completions vs. goals scored by Manchester City analysis, the regression is not very significant. This is most likely due to the small sample size (38 games).

However, when I did the same analysis using data from all the 380 games of last season (760 samples), the correlation was weak (as observed for the 38 games of Man City) and the regression was significant for the larger sample space.

Please keep the feedback coming!

1 Comment

by Ravi Ramineni on September 7, 2012 • Permalink

Posted in Arsenal, Barclays Premier League, English Premier League, Football Analytics, Manchester City, MCFC Analytics, Opta, QPR, Queens Park Rangers

Tagged #MCFCAnalytics, Arsenal, EPL, Liverpool, MCFC Analytics, Opta, Premier League, QPR, Soccer analytics

Posted by Ravi Ramineni on September 7, 2012

https://analysefootball.com/2012/09/07/final-3rd-analysis-more-follow-ups-mcfcanalytics/

Follow-up analysis: Final third passing and Goals scored per game

This is a follow up to my post regarding the strong correlation between completed in the final third and goals scored.

Question

Is there a correlation between the final third completions & goals scored at the game level?

Analysis

I investigated to see if this correlation exists at the game level using the #MCFCAnalytics data set. I plotted the completions in the final third vs. goals scored for Manchester City in all their 38 games of English Premier League.
Blue = Away ; Orange = Home

Manchester City Goals vs. Pass completions in the final 3rd on a per game basis

Findings:

Linear regression had an R² of 0.04 implying that there is no correlation between passes completed in the final third and goals scored at the game level.
I did the plot for a few other teams and got similar results.
Arsenal – Away and Liverpool – Home. In both cases, Manchester City had very little success completing passes in the final 3^rd. However, they lost 1-0 at the Emirates and won 3-0 at home vs. Liverpool.
Against Liverpool, City had 6 shots on target and 2 off target.
Against Arsenal, City had 0 shots on target and 3 off target.
QPR – Home and QPR – Away. City scored 3 goals each against QPR home and away. However, they had a season high 326 completed passes in the final 3^rd at home vs. just 74 in the away fixture.
Shots vs. QPR Away – 5 on target & 10 off target.
Shots vs. QPR Home – 15 on target and 10 off target.

The City – QPR fixture was that crazy season finale. City fell behind and they threw everyone forward to go for the win and the Premier league title. QPR was a man down from 55^th minute and they defended at the edge of their 18-yard box for most of 2^nd half. This explains the unusually high number of completed passes in the final third.

The above examples underline the rarity of the “goal” event. In any given game, there could be factors like bad shooting, luck, the opponent’s goalkeeper having a great game etc., which could influence the # of goals scored. However, over a season those things seem to even out.

In the next step of analysis I will add a 2^nd variable to the model and analyze.

10 Comments

by Ravi Ramineni on September 5, 2012 • Permalink

Posted in Arsenal, Football Analytics, Liverpool, Manchester City, MCFC Analytics, Opta, Premier League, QPR, Queens Park Rangers

Tagged #MCFCAnalytics, Arsenal, EPL, Liverpool, MCFC Analytics, Opta, Premier League, QPR, Soccer analytics

Posted by Ravi Ramineni on September 5, 2012

https://analysefootball.com/2012/09/05/follow-up-analysis-final-third-passing-and-goals-scored-per-game-mcfcanalytics/

MCFC Analytics – summary of blog posts # 1

Here are some of analysis pieces based on the #MCFCAnalytics data published in the past couple of weeks. I plan to do a weekly post linking to all the articles I come across on Twitter.

My objectives for the weekly post are:

Capture all the work done using the MCFC data set
Provide a forum of discussion – you are welcome to use the comments section of this blog to discuss these posts.
Get to know more people working on the data set and learn from the knowledge and ideas of others.

@MarkTaylor0 goes in-depth into the short passing ability of the keeper . Data shows that keepers had the best average short pass completion rate in the 2011-12 EPL season. However, that stat is not telling the full story.

Mark also has another interesting post on how Stoke City commit more fouls than Arsenal but end the season with the same # of yellow cards

Looks like Mark is working on more posts. I will check back next week to see what is new on Mark’s blog.

@MarchiMax has a couple of posts

Passing in EPL post looks of the delta between the average pass attempts of a team and the average pass attempts they allow their opponents. Some of the outliers like Fulham, Newcastle and Swansea are interesting.

The Passing efficiency is more interesting. It looks at the passing completion % of all the teams and attempts to identify factors that affect the passing completion %. Factors like opponent, stadium as well as the zone of the pitch in which the pass is completed.

@Philby1976 has interactive dashboard of the whole data set. This is a great tool to visualize different metrics and data points. The site’s response time might vary based on the speed of your internet and the browser you are using.

Data viz and tableau expert @acotgreave has couple of early examples of what can be done with the data set using Tableau Public. There are 3 different examples A) # of players used by the teams B) How did the players of two teams fare against each in the previous meetings and C) Comparing two strikers . The post not only highlights the data set but also the different visualizations you can do using Tableau Public.

@DanJHarrington has another great on visualization using Tableau – How does a team pass the ball . The post visualizes how each player in a team passes the ball (# of forward, backward & sideways passes). There is another post from the same website on who should have been England’s # 1 GK at the Euros using the MCFC data.

@JimmyCoverdale has a post on how data gives enough evidence on Why Walcott should be moved to a central midfield role

Apart from these I have a couple of posts on this blogs so far. Correlation between goals scored and pass completions in the final third and an opposition analysis of QPR.

If I missed any, please add them in the comments section, I will cover them in my next weekly post.